The Friday afternoon/evening pollercoaster – rolling thread

The Friday afternoon/evening pollercoaster – rolling thread

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Once again LAB voter contact running at higher level than CON in every seat – pattern we've seen throughout campaign pic.twitter.com/2JS13SyEcB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 1, 2015 LAB moves back sharply in Survation/Mirror poll.See Chart pic.twitter.com/KOH53O0zvx — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 1, 2015 LAB take 2% lead with Survation/Mirror. Last wk 4% behind LAB 34% (+5); CON 33% (NC); UKIP 16% (-2); LD 9% (-1); SNP 4% (NC); GRE 3% (-1) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 1, 2015 @LordAshcroft…

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2010 LDs are splitting much more to LAB in the CON-held marginals than they are in standard national polling

2010 LDs are splitting much more to LAB in the CON-held marginals than they are in standard national polling

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This could offset the CON first term incumbency factor I did some analysis earlier in the week on the way the LD vote was splitting comparing national with marginals polling. This came out before the latest ComRes/Mail poll and the above updates my previous comparisons. What is very striking is the greater propensity of 2010 LDs to split to LAB in the marginals polling compared with the national survey. For only the 2nd time this year CON & LAB level-pegging…

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The whole narrative of this campaign would have been very different if YouGov had been a weekly poll not a daily one

The whole narrative of this campaign would have been very different if YouGov had been a weekly poll not a daily one

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Figures from tonight's YouGov/Sun poll: CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 30, 2015 YouGov's polling since short campaign started – last night not included pic.twitter.com/RPT8gUAkNd — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 1, 2015 For poll watchers there’s a ritual every night at 10.30pm. We go into Twitter an wait for the Tweet from the Sun politics team giving the headline numbers from the latest YouGov daily poll findings. Fieldwork for the surveys…

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And before the big Question Time event here’s Marf

And before the big Question Time event here’s Marf

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Another online poll good for LAB LAB at 2% lead with Panelbase. LAB 34% (NC), CON 32% (+1%), UKIP 17% (NC), LD 8% (+1), GRN 4% (NC) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 30, 2015 Figures from tonight's YouGov/Sun poll: CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 30, 2015 So the first 2 polls to be published after the Ipsos MORI CON 5% lead survey both have small LAB leads. YouGov 1% Panelbase…

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If other firms show LAB only retaining 63% of 2010 party voters, like with Ipsos, then the party’s in trouble

If other firms show LAB only retaining 63% of 2010 party voters, like with Ipsos, then the party’s in trouble

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MORI info at last. The main voting split. pic.twitter.com/5qqSfigdwH — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 30, 2015 Only 63% of 2010 LAB voters supporting party now according to Ipsos. Other polls have that at 80+ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 30, 2015 The big feature from today’s dramatic Ipsos-MORI poll was that only 63% of 2010 LAB voters said they would still vote you party. This is totally out of line with other recent surveys which generally have had LAB with…

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How many of these ten will fail to become MPs next week?

How many of these ten will fail to become MPs next week?

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The knight of the long knives spread market from SPIN Nigel Farage (Thanet South), Nick Clegg (Sheffield Hallam), Ed Balls (Morley & Outwood), Douglas Alexander (Paisley & Renfr’ S.), Danny Alexander (Inverness, Nairn…), Jim Murphy (Renfrewshire East), Charles Kennedy (Ross Skye & Loch’), Simon Hughes (Bermondsey & S’wark), Esther McVey (Wirral West), George Galloway (Bradford West) This SportingIndex market is a spread bet with the total determined by the following. 0 fail to win (i.e all win their seats) =…

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The Thanet S & Hallam polls fail to move the markets & CON a 75% chance to win most seats

The Thanet S & Hallam polls fail to move the markets & CON a 75% chance to win most seats

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Clegg (1/2) & Farage (8/11) remain favourites with Betfair Sportsbook to win their seats in spite of @LordAshcroft polls having them behind — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 30, 2015 This is a bet on seat distribution not national vote shares One of the big things to remember as we get close is that the final seat totals are not governed by national vote share in some apparently pure manner but on the specific outcomes in 650 separate constituency battles fought…

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ComRes phone poll moves from 4% CON lead to level pegging

ComRes phone poll moves from 4% CON lead to level pegging

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New poll for @DailyMailUK / @itvnews has Conservatives and Labour tied on 35% each, UKIP 11%, LibDems 7%, Greens 6% pic.twitter.com/uCi5STIGyu — Savanta UK (@Savanta_UK) April 29, 2015 This is the worst result for the Tories from the firm since the Daily Mail began its GE 2015 polling with ComRes nearly two months ago. The swing is almost the same as with the ComRes marginals polling published earlier. Still to come the usual YouGov. ComRes ends a few days when…

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