This could offset the CON first term incumbency factor

I did some analysis earlier in the week on the way the LD vote was splitting comparing national with marginals polling. This came out before the latest ComRes/Mail poll and the above updates my previous comparisons.

What is very striking is the greater propensity of 2010 LDs to split to LAB in the marginals polling compared with the national survey.

For only the 2nd time this year CON & LAB level-pegging with Populus

Lab 33 (-3), Con 33 (-), LD 9 (+1), UKIP 15 (+1), Greens 4 (-1)

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 1, 2015

Today's Populus has methodology change. Now reallocating DKs to party supported at GE10. On old approach LAB has 1% lead.

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 1, 2015

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble

For latest polling and political betting news follow @MSmithsonPB