Betting on when The Queen will invite someone to form a government

Betting on when The Queen will invite someone to form a government

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Paddy Power have a market up on when Her Majesty will invite someone to form a government.  Please note the terms of the bet, Applies to the date of the Queen’s first invitation to form a government. Person first invited may or may not go on to form a government. Invitation counts even if an exploratory commission is accepted. PP decision final. Following on from this morning’s thread, this year’s Queen Speech is scheduled for the 27th of May, so if…

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Cameron and the post election narrative

Cameron and the post election narrative

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Finishing behind the Tories in seats and votes could force Ed Miliband to play the political equivalent of Russian Roulette with a fully loaded gun. Last night, the Tory strategy for Friday morning emerged, David Cameron will declare victory on Friday if he has most votes and seats and cast a Labour led government as illegitimate, The Tories will say ‘We’re legitimate, we’re the largest party, we should carry on.’ If necessary, dare the others to vote down a Conservative government. “We’ll…

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On the day of the royal birth – Marf and the weekend general election polls

On the day of the royal birth – Marf and the weekend general election polls

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First two polls of the night ComRes & Opinium have no change After a CON lead of 1% last week tonight's Opinium/Observer poll hasCON 35LAB 34LD 8UKIP 13GTN 5 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 2, 2015 Tonight’s ComRes phone poll for IoS/S Mirror has with comparisons last Tuesday poll Con 33% -2 Lab 33% -2 LD 8% +1 UKIP 13% +2 GN 7% +1 Views of Ed & Dave from ComRes IoS/S Mirror poll pic.twitter.com/do2qGinzmN — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May…

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Why the 6/4 on LAB in Croydon Central might be a value bet

Why the 6/4 on LAB in Croydon Central might be a value bet

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This pattern doesn’t look right As I’ve said so often what the 2010 LD voters do in the marginals could be absolutely critical in deciding the election. In processing yesterday’s round of CON-LAB marginals from Lord Ashcroft I came across the above apparent oddity in the Croydon Central survey. Its 2010 LD switcher total to the Tories is totally out of line with just about anything we have seen in his constituency polling. In October Lord Ashcroft found a split…

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David Herdson: The election remains far from a foregone conclusion

David Herdson: The election remains far from a foregone conclusion

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Groupthink can be a most dangerous thing. To listen to many commentators, analysts and indeed many politicians, such is the consensus that you might believe that the election was all over and the result in; that result being Con and Lab roughly level, an SNP landslide in Scotland, the Lib Dems parliamentary party halved and UKIP and the Greens failing to register meaningfully. So it might be but we should at least entertain other possibilities. Why has such a consensus…

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The big polling night continues with a Marf cartoon on Ed and the SNP

The big polling night continues with a Marf cartoon on Ed and the SNP

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A couple of surveys at least still to come Tonight we saw the last of Lord Ashcroft constituency polls which have added enormously to this election. All told his polling has covered nearly 250k separate phone interviews which is just colossal. There are some more polls to come tonight. I’m sort of expecting a new ComRes phone poll for the Mail and maybe one more as well as the usual YouGov. Tonight's YouGov/Sun poll: LAB retains its slender 1% lead….

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The Friday afternoon/evening pollercoaster – rolling thread

The Friday afternoon/evening pollercoaster – rolling thread

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Once again LAB voter contact running at higher level than CON in every seat – pattern we've seen throughout campaign pic.twitter.com/2JS13SyEcB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 1, 2015 LAB moves back sharply in Survation/Mirror poll.See Chart pic.twitter.com/KOH53O0zvx — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 1, 2015 LAB take 2% lead with Survation/Mirror. Last wk 4% behind LAB 34% (+5); CON 33% (NC); UKIP 16% (-2); LD 9% (-1); SNP 4% (NC); GRE 3% (-1) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 1, 2015 @LordAshcroft…

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2010 LDs are splitting much more to LAB in the CON-held marginals than they are in standard national polling

2010 LDs are splitting much more to LAB in the CON-held marginals than they are in standard national polling

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This could offset the CON first term incumbency factor I did some analysis earlier in the week on the way the LD vote was splitting comparing national with marginals polling. This came out before the latest ComRes/Mail poll and the above updates my previous comparisons. What is very striking is the greater propensity of 2010 LDs to split to LAB in the marginals polling compared with the national survey. For only the 2nd time this year CON & LAB level-pegging…

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