The YouGov poll at this point in the 2010 race got the CON-LAB margin almost exactly right – should we be expecting the same of the latest poll?

The YouGov poll at this point in the 2010 race got the CON-LAB margin almost exactly right – should we be expecting the same of the latest poll?

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The 2010 YouGov poll two days before GE10 got the LAB CON margin almost spot on. A good precedent for GE15? pic.twitter.com/t7h1G64m3a — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 5, 2015 It’s back to level-pegging in latest poll After a spate of 1% LAB or CON leads the latest YouGov Sun poll breaks the pattern – level peggingCON 33LAB 33 LD 10 UKIP 12GRN 5 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 4, 2015 On Betfair CON most seats is an 82% chance CON…

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Marf’s latest cartoon

Marf’s latest cartoon

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If you would like to purchase one of Marf’s prints or originals, please contact her here. YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour and Tories are tied: CON 33%, LAB 33%, LD 10%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5% — Sun Politics (@SunPolitics) May 4, 2015

ICM phone poll naming Clegg has him holding Sheffield Hallam thanks to tactical Tory voters

ICM phone poll naming Clegg has him holding Sheffield Hallam thanks to tactical Tory voters

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The guardian/@ICMResearch Sheffield Hallam poll. Top graphic is naming the candidates. pic.twitter.com/FwwlOWuQ1v — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 4, 2015 ICM have conducted a poll for the Guardian in Sheffield Hallam, seat of Nick Clegg. Nick Clegg is on course to be saved from defeat in his Sheffield Hallam constituency by a tide of tactical Tory votes, according to a special Guardian/ICM poll conducted in the deputy prime minister’s constituency. The poll puts Clegg on 42%, seven points clear of his young…

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Survation’s ballot paper voting responses raise questions about incumbency boosts on which the Tories are relying so much

Survation’s ballot paper voting responses raise questions about incumbency boosts on which the Tories are relying so much

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Are CON incumbents really going to get a bonus? In its latest poll for the Mail on Sunday Survation added a new dimension – a voting question based on the precise ballot paper that each of the 2100 people sampled will actually fill in on Thursday or have already done so with postal votes. This was an online poll and the replica ballot papers are generated for each participant by their post code. If there is going to be a…

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John Curtice on the exit poll

John Curtice on the exit poll

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John Curtice on the forthcoming exit poll http://t.co/887u4v1Yw3 pic.twitter.com/jjId8N7T5f — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 3, 2015 Just after 10pm on Thursday, the exit poll for the BBC/ITV/Sky News will be published, at the last two elections, it has been virtually spot on. However this year, it might be more difficult, as they are also going to give UKIP and SNP seat totals as the era of three party politics has come to an end. From the article John Curtice has said…

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Betting on when The Queen will invite someone to form a government

Betting on when The Queen will invite someone to form a government

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Paddy Power have a market up on when Her Majesty will invite someone to form a government.  Please note the terms of the bet, Applies to the date of the Queen’s first invitation to form a government. Person first invited may or may not go on to form a government. Invitation counts even if an exploratory commission is accepted. PP decision final. Following on from this morning’s thread, this year’s Queen Speech is scheduled for the 27th of May, so if…

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Cameron and the post election narrative

Cameron and the post election narrative

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Finishing behind the Tories in seats and votes could force Ed Miliband to play the political equivalent of Russian Roulette with a fully loaded gun. Last night, the Tory strategy for Friday morning emerged, David Cameron will declare victory on Friday if he has most votes and seats and cast a Labour led government as illegitimate, The Tories will say ‘We’re legitimate, we’re the largest party, we should carry on.’ If necessary, dare the others to vote down a Conservative government. “We’ll…

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