The whole narrative of this campaign would have been very different if YouGov had been a weekly poll not a daily one

The whole narrative of this campaign would have been very different if YouGov had been a weekly poll not a daily one

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Figures from tonight's YouGov/Sun poll: CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 30, 2015 YouGov's polling since short campaign started – last night not included pic.twitter.com/RPT8gUAkNd — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 1, 2015 For poll watchers there’s a ritual every night at 10.30pm. We go into Twitter an wait for the Tweet from the Sun politics team giving the headline numbers from the latest YouGov daily poll findings. Fieldwork for the surveys…

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And before the big Question Time event here’s Marf

And before the big Question Time event here’s Marf

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Another online poll good for LAB LAB at 2% lead with Panelbase. LAB 34% (NC), CON 32% (+1%), UKIP 17% (NC), LD 8% (+1), GRN 4% (NC) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 30, 2015 Figures from tonight's YouGov/Sun poll: CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 30, 2015 So the first 2 polls to be published after the Ipsos MORI CON 5% lead survey both have small LAB leads. YouGov 1% Panelbase…

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If other firms show LAB only retaining 63% of 2010 party voters, like with Ipsos, then the party’s in trouble

If other firms show LAB only retaining 63% of 2010 party voters, like with Ipsos, then the party’s in trouble

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MORI info at last. The main voting split. pic.twitter.com/5qqSfigdwH — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 30, 2015 Only 63% of 2010 LAB voters supporting party now according to Ipsos. Other polls have that at 80+ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 30, 2015 The big feature from today’s dramatic Ipsos-MORI poll was that only 63% of 2010 LAB voters said they would still vote you party. This is totally out of line with other recent surveys which generally have had LAB with…

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How many of these ten will fail to become MPs next week?

How many of these ten will fail to become MPs next week?

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The knight of the long knives spread market from SPIN Nigel Farage (Thanet South), Nick Clegg (Sheffield Hallam), Ed Balls (Morley & Outwood), Douglas Alexander (Paisley & Renfr’ S.), Danny Alexander (Inverness, Nairn…), Jim Murphy (Renfrewshire East), Charles Kennedy (Ross Skye & Loch’), Simon Hughes (Bermondsey & S’wark), Esther McVey (Wirral West), George Galloway (Bradford West) This SportingIndex market is a spread bet with the total determined by the following. 0 fail to win (i.e all win their seats) =…

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The Thanet S & Hallam polls fail to move the markets & CON a 75% chance to win most seats

The Thanet S & Hallam polls fail to move the markets & CON a 75% chance to win most seats

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Clegg (1/2) & Farage (8/11) remain favourites with Betfair Sportsbook to win their seats in spite of @LordAshcroft polls having them behind — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 30, 2015 This is a bet on seat distribution not national vote shares One of the big things to remember as we get close is that the final seat totals are not governed by national vote share in some apparently pure manner but on the specific outcomes in 650 separate constituency battles fought…

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ComRes phone poll moves from 4% CON lead to level pegging

ComRes phone poll moves from 4% CON lead to level pegging

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New poll for @DailyMailUK / @itvnews has Conservatives and Labour tied on 35% each, UKIP 11%, LibDems 7%, Greens 6% pic.twitter.com/uCi5STIGyu — Savanta UK (@Savanta_UK) April 29, 2015 This is the worst result for the Tories from the firm since the Daily Mail began its GE 2015 polling with ComRes nearly two months ago. The swing is almost the same as with the ComRes marginals polling published earlier. Still to come the usual YouGov. ComRes ends a few days when…

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How voting dynamics are different in the tight CON – LAB battlegrounds compared with the country as a whole

How voting dynamics are different in the tight CON – LAB battlegrounds compared with the country as a whole

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One of the great things about tonight’s ComRes/ITV marginals poll is that it gave us data that we could compare with national polling to see different patterns. The battleground polling was in the 50 CON seats that are most vulnerable to LAB and as the chart shows the biggest group of change voters since GE10, the LD supporters, have a very different profile of current support compared with the applicable comparative national poll. Far fewer of the LDs are sticking…

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ComRes: LAB take 3% lead in the 50 tightest CON-LAB marginals

ComRes: LAB take 3% lead in the 50 tightest CON-LAB marginals

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Latest ComRes / ITV News Battleground poll has studied the fifty most marginal CON-held seats where LAB were second at the last election, and results show that LAB leads CON by three points across these seats. LAB currently stand at 40% in these key battleground seats, with CON on 37%. This represents a swing of 3.5 points from the CON to LAB, and will boost Ed Miliband and his “happy warriors” on the LAB campaign team as they enter the…

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