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The OUT side needs someone other than Farage fronting the campaign

7/6/2015 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Poll by @Survation More people trust Cam than distrust him on the EU, opposite true for Farage http://t.co/UchpFVSgFI pic.twitter.com/y9PlT0y9cQ — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 5, 2015 Nigel Farage might be a hindrance to the OUT side Looking at the above findings from Survation on behalf of British Future, if the EU referendum is a head to head between David Cameron and Nigel Farage, it is advantage to Cameron and the In side (assuming Cameron campaigns for the UK to remain in…

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Polling Matters/PB Podcast: Professor John Curtice discusses the Exit Poll

6/6/2015 Editor Comments 0 Comment

In a slightly shorter version of the Polling Matters podcast (14 mins 23 secs) Keiran discusses the exit poll with Professor John Curtice. We discuss how it was done and how Professor Curtice felt when he realised it was about to say something very different to what the opinion polls had said. Keiran Pedley is an Associate Director at GfK NOP and tweets about polling and politics in a personal capacity at @keiranpedley

Solving Labour’s deficit dilemma?

6/6/2015 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

The new leader must win back trust on the economy If there was one moment where Labourâ€™s fate was sealed during Aprilâ€™s election campaign, it was not the unveiling of the Edstone; it was Ed Milibandâ€™s answer to whether he thought Labour had been spending too much prior to the Crash in 2008. He started by simply saying â€œno, I donâ€™tâ€. It may well have been that Labour was already heading for defeat at that point â€“ given how badly…

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Henry G Manson’s LAB leadership view remains: Yvette Cooper is the value bet

6/6/2015 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The mystery is why Burnham is odds on â€œItâ€™s Andyâ€™s to lose, right?â€ The bookmakers have Andy Burnham odds on to be the next Labour leader but Iâ€™m just not convinced. To be fair to Andy his campaign is considerably better than in 2010 and he has an impressive array of support from across the party. But despite getting most MP nominations so far and topping the Labourlist survey there are at least three good reasons why he might well…

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A CON gain from UKIP the highlight of this week’s local by-elections

5/6/2015 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Rothwell on Kettering Result: Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives: Jelley 771, Sumpter 853 E, Talbot 777 E Labour: Harris 614, Jones 623, Mills 951 E United Kingdom Independence Party: Hogston 370 Green Party: Heath 82, Jones 119, Reeves 89 No change from 2011 Wisbech South on Cambridgeshire Result: Conservative 1,020 (64% +33%), UKIP 298 (19% -19%), Labour 219 (14% -2%), Liberal Democrats 61 (4% -10%) Conservative GAIN from UKIP with a majority of 722 (45%) on a swing of 26% from…

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The final spread levels on general election day had a CON lead of 19 seats, 80 seats short of what actually happened

5/6/2015 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

May 7th 2015: The afternoon when CON seat buyers panicked CON lead on @SportingIndex http://t.co/rSKroIPwt1 spreads down 6 today – now 19 seats pic.twitter.com/l3SVpTf2cj — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 7, 2015 A lot has been written about the predictive nature of betting markets – a theory I do not subscribe to. Just look at how the Commons seats spreads moved on general election day and the comparison with the actual result. My understanding is that there was a huge panic…

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If indeed nearly half of all LAB members live in London that doesn’t bode well for Andy Burnham

5/6/2015 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

What an amazing stat – 48% of Labour Party members are from London. No wonder this party doesn't understand Britain. — Patrick O'Flynn (@oflynnsocial) September 23, 2014 He could be struggling where it matters most Last September UKIP was making great play of the London dominance of LAB by asserting that 48% of the party’s members lived there. Whether that’s accurate or not or whether it still holds good is hard to day but there’s little doubt that the red…

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Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview : June 4th 2015

4/6/2015 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Rothwell on Kettering (Deferred Election, Two Con defences, One Lab defence) Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 26, Labour 9, Independents 1 Result of ward at last election (2011):Â Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives: Ian Jelley 1,103 (E), Margaret Talbot 1,079 (E), Neil Matthews 1,052 (37%) Labour: Alan Mills 1,077 (E), Mark Hughes 847, Martin Fage 778 (36%) Independent: Alan Pote 616 (20%) Liberal Democrat: John Holt 230 (8%) Candidates duly nominated: Conservatives: Ian Jelley, Karl Sumpter, Margaret Talbot Labour:…

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