CON takes 12% lead in ComRes/Mail poll which uses new methodology to deal with turnout

CON takes 12% lead in ComRes/Mail poll which uses new methodology to deal with turnout

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ComRes/Mail chart of its 1st post GE15 poll with new methodology pic.twitter.com/3Y92PalA8w — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 4, 2015 ComRes chart showing impact of its new "voter turnout model" pic.twitter.com/r3aqagDiuI — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 4, 2015 In its first post GE15 phone survey for the Daily Mail ComRes is reporting a 12% CON lead. In an attempt to learn the lessons of May 7th the firm has developed a new Vote Turnout Model which seeks to refine the standard…

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This morning’s MUST READ: the Guardian account of how it all went wrong for LAB/EdM

This morning’s MUST READ: the Guardian account of how it all went wrong for LAB/EdM

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There’s an extraordinarily comprehensive account by Patrick Wintour in the Guardian this morning of how right up to the moment the exit poll was published at 10pm on May 7th that Ed and his team really believed he was about to become PM. The report opens: “This is the story of how the election defeat came about, based on extensive interviews with many of Miliband’s closest advisers. It is a story of decisions deferred, of a senior team divided, and…

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Now a fifth contender, Jeremy Corbyn, declares that he’s running for LAB leader

Now a fifth contender, Jeremy Corbyn, declares that he’s running for LAB leader

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Veteran left wing LAB MP Jeremy Corbyn enters the leadership racehttp://t.co/d1b3i9DGEn pic.twitter.com/YaEIDDVEGK — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 3, 2015 Says the other candidates are too right-wing Corbyn is going to have to get his skates on because nominations close a week on Monday and he’ll need 35 fellow MPs to support him just to get on the ballot. Of the other 4 contenders he told the Mirror ““They are not offering a clear enough alternative on the economic strategy and…

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As the Lib Dem leadership race starts a timely reminder from Ladbrokes of the devastation the party suffered at GE15

As the Lib Dem leadership race starts a timely reminder from Ladbrokes of the devastation the party suffered at GE15

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Next Lib Dem leader betting, 5 years ago:4 Laws5 Alexander8 Teather8 Huhne10 Farron10 Cable10 Davey16 Swinson20 Hughes25 Lamb — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) June 3, 2015 There are, as expected, just two candidates in the LD leadership race – or a quarter of the entire parliamentary party. Interestingly the two, Tim Farron and Norman Lamb, are the only ones in the list just Tweeted by Ladbrokes of the betting exactly five years ago. The most important thing to say is that…

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The LAB leadership race: Burnham appears in commanding position in the betting & MP declarations

The LAB leadership race: Burnham appears in commanding position in the betting & MP declarations

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Just six days to go before nominations open Not long now before the formal process for electing Labour’s next leader kicks into place. To appear on the ballot a contender has to have nominations from 35 fellow MPs and, as the chart shows, just Shadow Health Secretary, Andy Burnham, has managed to get more than that number to declare for him. In the betting he’s seen as being in strong position and on Betfair he’s now an odds-on chance. Meanwhile…

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ICM test finds that stay has an 18% lead when the proposed EU referendum question is asked

ICM test finds that stay has an 18% lead when the proposed EU referendum question is asked

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ICM test on different formats for referendum question. 1st option is the one in the bill. pic.twitter.com/z4Wady42oq — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 2, 2015 But other formats less good for YES ICM used a split sample in its online test and put three different options the first one being that inlcuded in the referendum bill. Split sample Q1: Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union? 1. Yes 2. No 3. DK Split sample Q2: Should the…

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25 days after losing his seat to the SNP Charles Kennedy dies at the age of 55

25 days after losing his seat to the SNP Charles Kennedy dies at the age of 55

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A police statement earlier this morning said simply “Police officers attended an address at Fort William on Monday, June 1 to reports of the sudden death of a 55-year-old man. Police were notified by ambulance service personnel. There are no suspicious circumstances.” Charles, who became an SDP MP at the age of 23, led the LDs from 1999 to 2006. Under his leadership the LDs won 62 seats at GE2005, I met him a number of times and this has…

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