Next Lib Dem leader betting, 5 years ago:
— Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) June 3, 2015
There are, as expected, just two candidates in the LD leadership race – or a quarter of the entire parliamentary party. Interestingly the two, Tim Farron and Norman Lamb, are the only ones in the list just Tweeted by Ladbrokes of the betting exactly five years ago.
The most important thing to say is that both held the line and their seats on May 7th against the Tory tide on May 7th. Both are equally good campaigners having taken the former CON strongholds of Westmorland and Lonsdale and Norfolk North at 2005 and 2001.
Farron is probably the better known of the two and currently the strong betting favourite.
Lamb looks set to be the choice of the party grandees which in the past has been a good pointer to LD leadership election outcomes. Earlier in the week Shirley Williams gave her backing to the former Health minister.
The election is by postal vote of the party’s 60,000 members – a total that has jumped by a third since May 7th – and the result should be known in mid-July.
It is hard to argue against a Farron victory but I think that the outcome will be closer than his odds of 1/8 suggest. I got 11/1 on Lamb on Betfair at the weekend.