— TSE (@TSEofPB) June 5, 2015
Nigel Farage might be a hindrance to the OUT side
Looking at the above findings from Survation on behalf of British Future, if the EU referendum is a head to head between David Cameron and Nigel Farage, it is advantage to Cameron and the In side (assuming Cameron campaigns for the UK to remain in the EU.)
Any future unpopularity of the government and Cameron in the run up and at the time of the referendum might negate Cameron’s advantage, but as the below graphic shows, the trust of Nigel Farage is limited to those who already want to leave the EU. OUT need to get others involved, to get those undecideds and those currently intending to vote for the UK remain in the EU, who might not be enthused by some of UKIP/Farage’s other policies, such as their past opposition to same sex marriage, breastfeeding, climate change, to name but a few.
This poll, like the the YouGov highlighted last week,Â older voters, who are on past form, the most likely to vote, and were the bedrock of the Tory majority last month, are leaning towards voting to leave the EU. The OUT side if they have the right group of people leading and representing OUT in the campaign can win the referendum.
The full British Future report is available here