New guest slot team member DavidL on the other leadership election – the fight to lead Scottish Labour

New guest slot team member DavidL on the other leadership election – the fight to lead Scottish Labour

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I’d like to talk about the Labour leadership election. No, no, not that election but the Scottish one that no one is paying any attention to. On 16th May Jim Murphy announced, having won his vote of no confidence, that he was standing down, not there and then like his esteemed leader but a month later. That month is up next week. As always in the Alice in Wonderland of Scottish politics, Scottish Labour can’t go back to yesterday because…

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Leadership polling 8 weeks before the ballots go out can be misleading

Leadership polling 8 weeks before the ballots go out can be misleading

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This from the last CON contest in 2005 At this stage even with members it’s about name recognition The above chart is from a YouGov poll of Conservative party members which was carried out by YouGov in early September 2005 and published on September 10th. The timing is almost an exact parallel with the current LAB fight – about 8 weeks before the issuing of postal ballot forms. All the parties have totally different ways of doing this and in…

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The LAB leadership: A three, a four or a five horse race?

The LAB leadership: A three, a four or a five horse race?

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Bunham & Cooper have 35+ MP endorsements: Kendall 3 to go We are now just a day away from the first formal stage in the race to be EdM’s successor. MP nominations open tomorrow and those wanting to be on the ballot have until next Monday to garner the support of 35 LAB MPs to ensure that they are on the ballot. From the News Statesman figures above Cooper and Burnham have clearly crossed the line with Kendall just three…

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Betting on a David Miliband return could make sense

Betting on a David Miliband return could make sense

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Having left British politics a few years ago, David Miliband is making a comeback of sorts, less than a week after Labour’s conference in September (and less than a month after Labour’s new leader has been elected) as he will be the keynote speaker at the Institute of Directors’ annual convention. I get the feeling, after declining to remove both Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband before they led their party to defeat, the next Labour Leader might not be so fortunate…

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The OUT side needs someone other than Farage fronting the campaign

The OUT side needs someone other than Farage fronting the campaign

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Poll by @Survation More people trust Cam than distrust him on the EU, opposite true for Farage http://t.co/UchpFVSgFI pic.twitter.com/y9PlT0y9cQ — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 5, 2015 Nigel Farage might be a hindrance to the OUT side Looking at the above findings from Survation on behalf of British Future, if the EU referendum is a head to head between David Cameron and Nigel Farage, it is advantage to Cameron and the In side (assuming Cameron campaigns for the UK to remain in…

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Polling Matters/PB Podcast: Professor John Curtice discusses the Exit Poll

Polling Matters/PB Podcast: Professor John Curtice discusses the Exit Poll

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In a slightly shorter version of the Polling Matters podcast (14 mins 23 secs) Keiran discusses the exit poll with Professor John Curtice. We discuss how it was done and how Professor Curtice felt when he realised it was about to say something very different to what the opinion polls had said. Keiran Pedley is an Associate Director at GfK NOP and tweets about polling and politics in a personal capacity at @keiranpedley

Solving Labour’s deficit dilemma?

Solving Labour’s deficit dilemma?

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The new leader must win back trust on the economy If there was one moment where Labour’s fate was sealed during April’s election campaign, it was not the unveiling of the Edstone; it was Ed Miliband’s answer to whether he thought Labour had been spending too much prior to the Crash in 2008. He started by simply saying “no, I don’t”. It may well have been that Labour was already heading for defeat at that point – given how badly…

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