The LAB leadership: A three, a four or a five horse race?

The LAB leadership: A three, a four or a five horse race?

Bunham & Cooper have 35+ MP endorsements: Kendall 3 to go

We are now just a day away from the first formal stage in the race to be EdM’s successor. MP nominations open tomorrow and those wanting to be on the ballot have until next Monday to garner the support of 35 LAB MPs to ensure that they are on the ballot.

From the News Statesman figures above Cooper and Burnham have clearly crossed the line with Kendall just three off. The questions is whether Creagh and Corbyn can find other backers in time. It might be that one of the front runners decides that it will be to their tactical advantage to ensure that the field is as full as possible.

The election is decided by AV with the 200,000+ people eligible to vote being able to list their choices in order. Unless one candidate secures a majority on the first round then the second preferences of the person at the bottom will be re-allocated and so on.

    My guess is that Burnham, like David Miliband in 2010, will be top after the first stage but he won’t have 50%. It will be the 2nd & 3rd preferences that will decide it.

The actual ballot packs go out in mid-August and it will be September 12th before we find out who has won.

My betting at the moment is that Burnham won’t make it but that may change.

What is likely to be forthcoming in the next few weeks is polling of those entitled to vote. YouGov have done this in the past and my guess is that the firm will be leading the way. It made a fair job of it in September 2010 and is likely to have built up data on panel members who are LAB members or registered LAB supporters.

Mike Smithson

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