David Herdson on a crucial weekend If there were any doubt that David Cameron is a lucky politician, events in Europe this last week have again made the point. No sooner had he suffered a setback at the European Council, failing to win a chance of treaty reform, than the Greek government gives him (inadvertently, no doubt), a huge helping hand. The decision of Alexis Tsipras to commit his government to destruction by a method to be determined by the…
The body that will oversee the shake-up In my last two posts, here and here, I’ve looked at the likely impact of the boundary review and considered how the parties might wish to see those boundaries fall.  To date I haven’t really looked at the role of the Boundary Commissions at all.  This is a serious omission. In fact, it will be the Boundary Commissions that determine the constituency boundaries. The parties can make representations but the Boundary Commissions will have…
Grantham, Barrowby on Lincolnshire (Con defence) Result: Conservative 579 (50% +12%), Labour 257 (22% -8%), UKIP 179 (15%, no candidate in 2013), Lincolnshire Independents 155 (13%, no candidate in 2013) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 322 (28%) on a swing of 10% from Labour to Conservative Hampton Wick on Richmond upon Thames (Con defence) Result: Liberal Democrat 1,189 (43% +25%), Conservative 1,081 (39% -11%), Green 237 (9% -10%), Labour 185 (7% -7%), UKIP 69 (3%, no candidate in 2014),…
Why my LD vote could be against my betting self interest Just got back from a wonderfully restful holiday on the coast near the ancient sherry town of Jerez in South West Spain to find my LD leadership voting papers there waiting for my attention. The choice is very difficult. Back in April 2011 I suggested on PB that Norman Lamb, then 25/1, might be a good next party leader bet and I do well if he wins. Certainly if,…
Grantham, Barrowby on Lincolnshire (Con defence) Result of council at last election (2013): Conservatives 36, United Kingdom Independence Party 16, Labour 12, Lincolnshire Independents 8, Liberal Democrats 3, Independents 2 (No Overall Control, Conservatives short by 3) Result of ward at last election (2013): Conservatives 558 (38%), Independent 476 (32%), Labour 442 (30%) Candidates duly nominated: Rob Shorrock (Lab), Maureen Simon (UKIP), Mark Whittington (Con) Lincolnshire, on the face of it, looks rather boring. Since 1989 it’s only gone NOC…
Greek Fin Min @yanisvaroufakis won't sign deal without debt restructuring. #GreeceCrisis http://t.co/C6Qf4aQdLz pic.twitter.com/gbgHrr1ksD — Bloomberg TV (@BloombergTV) July 2, 2015 Latest betting odds on the Greek referendum. pic.twitter.com/nAOfZvhB2u — TSE (@TSEofPB) July 2, 2015 The betting markets seem to believe that Yes will win, but I suspect whatever the outcome either the Greek government or the Euro in Greece will be gone shortly after the referendum result is announced. This might lead to the government, money, people and businesses wanting…
Picture credit: Wikimedia Commons. Whilst the Conservatives fight over this week’s Airport Commission report, expanding Heathrow is exactly the type of common sense, business friendly policy that Labour should be supporting as it seeks to win again. The party must embrace it argues Keiran Pedley The Prime Minister has a leadership crisis on his hands. Perhaps this crisis is not as serious as recent world events in Tunisia or Greece. Perhaps it does not animate Conservative back benchers as much…
How Corbyn could stop Burnham winning the Labour leadership http://t.co/2f88L4Rpcs pic.twitter.com/lgVdxNMvrt — TSE (@TSEofPB) July 1, 2015 Many thanks to Richard Nabavi for posting this article by Peter Kellner on the previous thread. Peter Kellner looks at how the Alternative Vote system Labour use to elect their leader might stop Andy Burnham winning, it should be remembered, that this voting system helped Ed Miliband defeat his brother five years ago. If you’re not sure how the Alternative Vote system works, this…