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How a third runway at Heathrow could make for a real Old Etonian mess for Cameron

1/7/2015 TSE Comments 0 Comment

David Cameron in 2013 reaffirming his 2009 pledge that â€œThe third runway at Heathrow is not going ahead, no ifs, no buts.â€ It might be a novel experience for the Tory Party to be split on issue other than than EU, but the third runway at Heathrow has the potential to be just as problematic. Today the Davies report has backed building a third runway at Heathrow.Â The above video shows Cameron in 2013 reaffirming a 2009 pledge not to build…

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Local By-Election Result : June 30th 2015

1/7/2015 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Result: Conservative 561 (40% -14%), Plaid 543 (39% +27%), Labour 234 (17% -12%), Independent 24 (2%, no candidate in 2012), Green Party 22 (2% -1%), Liberal Democrats 10 (1% -1%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 18 (1%) on a swing of 21% from Conservative to Plaid

The Ipsos Mori issues index for June

1/7/2015 TSE Comments 0 Comment

The big risers are Immigration/Immigrants and EU/Europe, which seems understandable given the focus on the EU referendum since the election. The big faller is the economy, which maybe confirmation of the fifteen year high in consumer confidence that the pollster GfK found yesterday. For me the most interesting aspect of this polling is the below chart. There’s a real difference between the ages, so the older groups are more concerned by the EU than younger ones, this as has…

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Local By-Election Preview : June 30th 2015

30/6/2015 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Pentyrch on Cardiff (Con defence) Result of council at last election (2012): Labour 46, Liberal Democrats 16, Conservatives 7, Independents 4, Plaid Cymru 2 (Labour majority of 17) Result of ward at last election (2012): Conservative 772 (54%), Labour 413 (29%), Plaid Cymru 171 (12%), Green 40 (3%), Liberal Democrat 22 (2%) Candidates duly nominated: Cadan ap Tomos (Lib Dem), Paul Fisher (Lab), Gavin Hill (Con), Munawar Mughal (Ind), Ruth Osner (Green), Hywel Wigley (Plaid) Cardiff, the capital city of…

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Betting on when the Greek banks reopen

30/6/2015 TSE Comments 0 Comment

BREAKING: German government official says it is now too late for an extension of the Greek bailout programme. — Reuters Top News (@Reuters) June 30, 2015 BREAKING: Greek finance minister says Greece will not pay the IMF on Tuesday. — Reuters Top News (@Reuters) June 30, 2015 For the Greek people, it appears this tragedy has been going on longer than it tookÂ OdysseusÂ reachÂ home after the fall of Troy, but looking at the above tweets, it is looking like that we…

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How the economic case for Scottish Independence was weakened in the last week

30/6/2015 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Picture credit: Twitter How opponents of Scottish independence may have struck metaphorical oil in the last week. The top table (table 5) is taken from the Scottish Government’s white paper on independence published in late 2013, whilst the bottom table (table 1) is from the Scottish Government’s Oil & Gas bulletin published last week. As the Guardian notes The Scottish government has been accused of trying to bury a report that predicts North Sea oil revenues could be Â£40bn less…

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How the voters moved on May 7th

29/6/2015 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Superb work from Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus on how the votes switched on May 7th http://t.co/4fOpjObE7x pic.twitter.com/A29Y8a37ss — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 29, 2015 This is a great bit of analysis of how the voters moved on election day from the previous general election, Martin Baxter explains The graphic shows the various migrations of one hundred typical voters from 2010 to now. Voters who have switched from one party to another are shown moving along the corresponding arrow. “Lost” supporters…

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Electoral analysis: The art of changing boundaries

29/6/2015 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Antifrank looks at the art of changing boundaries In my last post I spent some time looking at the likely impact of the impending boundary changes on the numbers of seats in different regions and the potential impact on the seat numbers of different parties.Â In this post I shall look at how the detail of the boundary review might assist or hinder the different parties. National party strategic considerations In the boundary commission review in the mid-1990s the Conservatives…

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