After two days of turbulence in the LAB leadership betting Yvette is the biggest loser

After two days of turbulence in the LAB leadership betting Yvette is the biggest loser

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Without published polling punters are flying blind The charts above are from Betfair and show the movements in the betting price, expressed as a percentage, on the betting exchange. Frustratingly there is no specified time axis but this is the best that’s available. Unlike prices from the standard fixed odds bookies the betting exchange reflects what is actually happening in terms of the prices that punters are ready to back and lay at. Overall the big driver ha been the…

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At exactly 2200 on May 7th UK politics totally changed in the biggest shock election since 1970

At exactly 2200 on May 7th UK politics totally changed in the biggest shock election since 1970

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An invitation to PBers to join an academic/Ipsos-MORI post GE15 conference next week After every election since 1979 there’s been a joint academic and MORI (now Ipsos-MORI) conference to look by at what happened and the lessons for the future. The 2015 one takes lace next Monday and Tuesday in London. The organisers tell me that PBers are very welcome to apply for tickets. The only cost might be a small catering charge. Full details and links can be found…

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On Twitter in the LAB leadership battle the Corbyn campaign has most to be pleased about

On Twitter in the LAB leadership battle the Corbyn campaign has most to be pleased about

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But can we read anything into these numbers? Following their entries into the race all four contenders set up dedicated campaign Twitter accounts and the numbers in the chart above show how many followers they have attracted. All of these were created at about the same time so comparisons are valid. The question is what can we read into the numbers? What I find interesting is that the contenders perceived as being the most left and right wing are the…

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Greece: It’s looking like NO

Greece: It’s looking like NO

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Greek referendum final polls show 'No' vote ahead by small margin http://t.co/36wH1Sg34G — Reuters (@Reuters) July 5, 2015 Half of votes counted #Greferendum pic.twitter.com/WJNrKCkvqS — Adam Boulton (@adamboultonTABB) July 5, 2015

Nick Sparrow, the pollster who did most to change post-1992, on poll averaging, herding and the pressure to conform

Nick Sparrow, the pollster who did most to change post-1992, on poll averaging, herding and the pressure to conform

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< Why Polls End Up Saying The Same Thing Following the General Election, the pollsters have been accused of having herd instincts.  How else do so many polling companies, acting independently, get to the same – wrong – answer? In the final days of the campaign, the polls mainly agreed on the likely outcome, and even a late movement to Labour.  Polls of polls ironed out small differences and gave an even greater feeling of certainty.  But the natural belief...

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The LD leadership race where NOT being anti-immigration could be a vote winner

The LD leadership race where NOT being anti-immigration could be a vote winner

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Smart move by Tim Farron as the LD leadership race draws to a closehttp://t.co/QY5nhfdiSJ pic.twitter.com/y1IgZ5r3a9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 4, 2015 With the Lib Dem leadership race drawing to a close the favourite, ex-party president Tim Farron, according to the Observer, has said that the UK should take 60,000 immigrants to help deal with the current crisis. According to Toby Helm’s report: “..“We should support this because we are decent people. Our party should not have a mixed message…

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Liz Kendall: The 2015 LAB version of what Ken Clarke was for the Tories 1997-2005?

Liz Kendall: The 2015 LAB version of what Ken Clarke was for the Tories 1997-2005?

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"Liz Kendall is to Labour as Ken Clarke was to the Tories 1997-2005." Discuss. — Stephen Bush (@stephenkb) July 1, 2015 For EU supporter read “Blairite” or “CON-lite” As I was returning from holiday a couple of days ago the News Statesman’s, Stephen Bush posted the above Tweet which I’ve been pondering over ever since – for there might be a grain of truth in it. After the appalling Tory defeat by Tony Blair in 1997 the Tories had a…

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