Harry Hayfeld’s Local By-Election Preview : July 9th 2015

Harry Hayfeld’s Local By-Election Preview : July 9th 2015

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Thorniewood on North Lanarkshire (SNP defence) Result of council at last election (2012): Labour 41, Scottish National Party 26, Independents 2, Cumbernauld Independent Councillors Alliance 1 (Labour majority of 12) Result of ward at last election (2012): Emboldened denotes elected Labour: 1,623, 1,443 (71%) Scottish National Party: 1,057 (24%) Conservative: 225 (5%) Candidates duly nominated: Steven Bonnar (SNP), Hugh Gaffney (Lab), Meghan Gallacher (Con), Patrick McAleer (Green), Liam McCabe (SSP), Craig Smith (Scottish Christian Party), Matt Williams (UKIP) What I…

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It could be that the days of saturation general election polling ended at 10pm on May 7th

It could be that the days of saturation general election polling ended at 10pm on May 7th

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The chart says it all. There have been just 6 general election polls published in the UK since May 7th – a sharp contrast with the numbers we saw even by this stage five years ago. Confidence in the numbers that are produced has collapsed – a situation not helped by the polling ahead of last weekend’s referendum in Greece. If polling cannot give us even a broad picture of a likely general election outcome then what is the point?…

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In the LAB leadership race Osbo’s budget looks set to help Yvette more than Andy, Jeremy or Liz

In the LAB leadership race Osbo’s budget looks set to help Yvette more than Andy, Jeremy or Liz

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A Budget that betrays working parents – with women hit more than twice as hard as men. See my response http://t.co/jTinSjRpIW @TheStaggers — Yvette Cooper (@YvetteCooperMP) July 8, 2015 70% of the £9.6bn net extra being raised from households (inc tax credits, allowances, benefits) is coming from women (£7bn) @CommonsLibrary — Yvette Cooper (@YvetteCooperMP) July 8, 2015 Yesterday could help revive Yvette’s flagging campaign A big problem for all contenders is that there have been precious few opportunities since the…

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Why polling is so hard – the latest PB/Polling Matters podcast.

Why polling is so hard – the latest PB/Polling Matters podcast.

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In this week’s episode of Polling Matters in conjunction with Politicalbetting.com, Keiran and Rob Vance – VP at Penn Schoen Berland. discuss the perils of polling with Suzanne Ter Minassian of ICM. We look at the BPC inquiry and Lord Foulkes’ plans to regulate the industry alongside the Greek referendum and Labour leadership contests. Suzanne also explains how polling is done in France and the impact of statutory regulation there.

For the first time Osborne becomes betting favourite for next CON leader & next PM

For the first time Osborne becomes betting favourite for next CON leader & next PM

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Introducing the new betting favourite for next CON leader and PMGeorge Osborne pic.twitter.com/WV5zs03Yzv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 8, 2015 Last trade on next CON leader marketon Betfair had Osborne just longer than evens – a 48% chance — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 8, 2015 Ladbrokes now make Osborne favourite for next CON leader5/2 Osborne11/4 Johnson7/1 May7/1 Javid — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 8, 2015 Ladbrokes next PM betting11/4 George Osborne3/1 Boris Johnson8/1 Andy Burnham10/1 Theresa May10/1 Sajid Javid14/1 Yvette…

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As George Osborne prepares make his statement ComRes issue a budget poll

As George Osborne prepares make his statement ComRes issue a budget poll

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As Osborne prepares to give budget speech ComRes/Mail poll on likely measures just published pic.twitter.com/pMCexzsjPk — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 8, 2015 Wouldn't it be great if this time Osborne did not use that tired cliche "hard working families"? — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 8, 2015 Osborne starting his 7th budget pic.twitter.com/wdCyDkMxh3 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 8, 2015

The big problem with free TV licences for those 75+ is that a staggering one in six of all UK households qualify

The big problem with free TV licences for those 75+ is that a staggering one in six of all UK households qualify

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Gordon Brown’s 2001 exemption rule has a huge loophole which should never have been agreed From 1980-84 a big part my then job at the BBC was to deal with the PR and political issues relating to the corporation’s prime income source, the TV licence. None of the challenges that was as sensitive or as problematic as what should be done about the oldies who were required to pay the same fee as everybody else. There had been a long-standing…

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Four hours and 26 minutes after exit poll Betfair punters rated a CON majority as a 28% shot

Four hours and 26 minutes after exit poll Betfair punters rated a CON majority as a 28% shot

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Screen grab of Betfair GE2015 outcome market timed 2.26am May 8th Two months to the day after the election and people are still talking about the outcome which I would argue was a bigger shock than what happened in 1992. Then there was just one poll that was showing a Tory lead. In the run up to May 7th quite a number of the phone polls had reasonable CON margins including a couple which had a blue lead of 6%….

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