It wasn’t just at the May 2015 general election that the polling did not cover itself with glory

It wasn’t just at the May 2015 general election that the polling did not cover itself with glory

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September 2010: Final LAB members leadership poll YouGov LAB members poll Sept ’10 YouGov 1st round Actual 1st round YouGov Miliband preference Actual final votes ABBOTT, Diane 11 7.3 0 0 BALLS, Ed 9 10.1 0 0 BURNHAM, Andy 10 8.6 0 0 MILIBAND, David 38 44.1 48 54.4 MILIBAND, Ed 31 29.9 52 45.6 What should be noted about this poll was that it took place six days after the postal ballot packs had gone out and for many…

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Harriet Harman’s comments today have been interpreted as opposing Burnham as leader and endorsing Kendall

Harriet Harman’s comments today have been interpreted as opposing Burnham as leader and endorsing Kendall

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Harriet Harman’s comments on today’s Sunday Politics (in the video above) have been interpreted as coming out against Andy Burnham and endorsing Liz Kendall as leader. She warned the party not to choose “somebody who we can feel comfortable with” but who can “command the confidence of the country.” Following on from overnight reports that she chastised Andy Burnham in a Shadow Cabinet meeting, by reminding him that Labour lost the general election, I sense some in Labour get the feeling Andy Burnham…

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Labour need not only a decent leader they also need a decent strategist to help the new leader

Labour need not only a decent leader they also need a decent strategist to help the new leader

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Video: Michael Fallon warning Ed Miliband will stab UK in the back just as he did to his brother David. It can be argued that the next Labour leader has the hardest task any Labour leader faces since Arthur Henderson. Labour are vulnerable on their left flank, from a Farron led Lib Dem party who will be more attractive to Labour supporters than Nick Clegg. They will also have to deal with the Greens and the SNP on their left….

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New study suggests that UKIP’s “2020 strategy” is going to be challenging

New study suggests that UKIP’s “2020 strategy” is going to be challenging

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House of Commons Library blog – Steven Ayres In 5/6ths its 120 GE15 2nd places it faces majorities of 10%+ In the aftermath of May 7th UKIP was taking some comfort from the 120 second places it had chalked up suggesting that this provided a good platform for next time. Maybe. Steven Ayres on the House of Commons Library blog has produced an interesting analysis of Farage’s party’s performance and the potential to build on its record GE15. His chart…

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Pax Osbornia: recasting the political landscape into the 2030s

Pax Osbornia: recasting the political landscape into the 2030s

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But he still won’t be prime minister It takes a staggering degree of self-restraint and of confidence to know that you plan to increase the minimum wage by more than 10% and to choose to say nothing about it during an election campaign. It also shows a fine level of political judgement. Had George Osborne done so, he would have been accused of panicking and of allowing Labour to set the agenda. He probably wouldn’t have been believed and if…

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Pleased to meet you: the Labour intake of 2015

Pleased to meet you: the Labour intake of 2015

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Antifrank looks at the Labour intake of 2015 The election in May was a huge disappointment for Labour, going backwards rather than forwards.  Despite losing seats, however, over one fifth of the Labour MPs elected in May were not in the House of Commons in the last Parliament.  That is a big chunk of the Parliamentary party and the new MPs will have a big influence over the party’s future direction.  Who are these new MPs, what do they believe…

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This week’s local by elections see holds for SNP, PC, CON and LAB but no seats changing hands

This week’s local by elections see holds for SNP, PC, CON and LAB but no seats changing hands

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Thorniewood on North Lanarkshire (SNP defence) Result: Scottish National Party 1,555 (47% +23%), Labour 1,410 (43% -28%), Conservative 149 (5% unchanged), SSP 81 (2%, no candidate in 2012), Green 51 (2%, no candidate in 2012), Scottish Christian Party 33 (1%, no candidate in 2012), United Kingdom Independence Party 29 (1%, no candidate in 2012) SNP HOLD elected on the 6th count on a swing of 25.5% from Labour to SNP Morfa Nefyn on Gwynedd (Plaid Defence) Result: Plaid Cymru 315…

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Don Brind’s question for the LAB 4: How will you get the better of Osborne in 2020?

Don Brind’s question for the LAB 4: How will you get the better of Osborne in 2020?

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This should be the decisive factor For Labour supporters the worst moment of the General Election campaign came a week ahead of polling day when Ed Miliband was ambushed by Tory activists in the BBC Question Time audience and left floundering over whether the Labour government spending had been too high. We didn’t need the Guardian/ICM poll which scored evening 44% for Cameron and 38% for Miliband to tell us that their guy had won and ours had lost. The…

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