The British Election Study suggests that differential turnout the most likely cause of the GE2015 polling failure

The British Election Study suggests that differential turnout the most likely cause of the GE2015 polling failure

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LAB supporters more likely to have overstated certainty to vote There’s an important paper just out from the British Election Study on what went wrong with the polls on May 7th. Why did it happen? The report by Jon Mellon and Chris Prosser does not give much credence to the “late swing”, “don’t knows” and “shy Tory” theories and argues that differential turnout was most to blame. Those over-stating their likelihood to vote were more likely to be those saying…

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The Telegraph’s step by step guide on how those opposed to Labour can help Corbyn win

The Telegraph’s step by step guide on how those opposed to Labour can help Corbyn win

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Telegraph providing step by step guide on how to vote for Corbyn in order to help "doom" LAB.http://t.co/AJNWGAzdKM pic.twitter.com/Ii6XHxRtV5 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 15, 2015 The Telegraph's guide to how Tories can vote for Corbyn is herehttp://t.co/AxFgffMgfa — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 15, 2015 In Betfair exchange this evening punters have been rating Corbyn's chances of LAB leader at between 20-25% pic.twitter.com/PcyyxZa1go — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 15, 2015

Private polling points to Corbyn victory in Labour’s leadership race

Private polling points to Corbyn victory in Labour’s leadership race

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Private polling seen by New Statesman points to big win by Corbyn. http://t.co/pEhTmJ8fGF pic.twitter.com/oEDQFEvVy9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 15, 2015 Remember the members polling got it very wrong in 2010. September 2010: Final LAB members leadership poll YouGov LAB members poll Sept ’10 YouGov 1st round Actual 1st round YouGov Miliband preference Actual final votes ABBOTT, Diane 11 7.3 0 0 BALLS, Ed 9 10.1 0 0 BURNHAM, Andy 10 8.6 0 0 MILIBAND, David 38 44.1 48 54.4…

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Why in the end I voted for Norman Lamb

Why in the end I voted for Norman Lamb

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We need effective liberal voices in an increasingly illiberal world Although I’ve not been an active Lib Dem for more than a decade and a half I have still retained my membership and consider my politics as being strongly liberal with a small “l”. As I posted the week before last I arrived back from holiday to find my voting papers waiting for me and at that stage I could not decide between the two. I have enormous respect for…

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Keiran Pedley says Tessa Jowell looks set to become LAB’s candidate for London Mayor

Keiran Pedley says Tessa Jowell looks set to become LAB’s candidate for London Mayor

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Those that read the Evening Standard will know that YouGov has a new poll out on which Labour hopeful would make the best candidate for London Mayor. As we might expect, the Standard has run with the line ‘David Lammy leaps to second place in Labour’s mayoral candidate race’ but we should be careful when jumping to conclusions. Once ‘don’t knows’ and ‘none of these’ are excluded, the sample size for this poll is just n=460. This is a perfectly…

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The man sitting behind Burnham in this pic sums up LAB’s prolonged leadership election

The man sitting behind Burnham in this pic sums up LAB’s prolonged leadership election

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Andy Burnham seeking to enthuse the audience, including the man behind, in the BBC2 LAB leadership debate. pic.twitter.com/jZYONir4QB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 13, 2015 Alan Johnson says that the next LAB leader should be a woman. pic.twitter.com/7sYuXuJdz0 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 13, 2015 We’ve still got another month before the first votes are cast If you think that the LAB leadership battle has been going on for a long time then you probably share the sentiments of the…

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On fox-hunting a reminder from the SNP of the tight parliamentary situation

On fox-hunting a reminder from the SNP of the tight parliamentary situation

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LAB by-election leaflet 2009 SNP westminster leader @AngusRobertson "we totally oppose foxhunting"… Full statement: pic.twitter.com/4qyRPCk679 — Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) July 13, 2015 But won’t this reinforce the case for EVEL? This is how the Speccie’s Isabel Hardman sums up the situation:- “..The result may still work politically for both parties in one sense: in Scotland of course the headline ‘SNP stops Tories relaxing hunting ban’ works beautifully for Nicola Sturgeon’s party. But in England a headline saying ‘SNP stops Tories…

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