Should Labour move swiftly to depose Corbyn?

Should Labour move swiftly to depose Corbyn?

Comments 0 Comment

If it were done when ’tis done, then ’twere well  It were done quickly. Trading as short as 1/6, let us assume that Jeremy Corbyn wins. Let us also assume that the electoral cause of Labour will be better served by getting rid of him. Elections are won on the centre ground, and Stephen Bush has pretty conclusively shown that non-voters are not, collectively, an alternative viable route to victory. Even if Corbyn does manage to turn out a bunch of new…

Read More Read More

Five more sleeps to go and Mr Corbyn’s chances of winning are rated at 81%

Five more sleeps to go and Mr Corbyn’s chances of winning are rated at 81%

Comments 0 Comment

As at 7.30pm Implied probabilities of Corbyn winning according to Betfair is 81% Cooper 11% Burnham 9% Kendall < 1% pic.twitter.com/f3e4TGUCSe — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 7, 2015 Dear Labour if you elect Corbyn expect stories like this every day of his leadership. http://t.co/PohoGZg2F8 pic.twitter.com/fhYTWfoPKi — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 7, 2015 TSE Update ORB poll finds 2/3rds of people think Corbyn would be unlikely to win next general election http://t.co/UKTllXYvf1 pic.twitter.com/T94zaDKM7E — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 7, 2015 Part II of the…

Read More Read More

At least one contender is set to say the contest should be delayed by three days

At least one contender is set to say the contest should be delayed by three days

Comments 0 Comment

If true. Blimey with knobs on. http://t.co/VWVLRCJf3C pic.twitter.com/tUKTjJMjCw — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 7, 2015 If this story by the Mail is true then whilst it will make the whole process look even more shambolic it might indicate one of the candidates thinks they can still win with late votes. So whomever is the first to call for a delay might be the one to back as I can’t see Corbyn calling for a delay. One of the problems I foresee…

Read More Read More

The bigger Corbyn’s victory the greater will be his survival chances

The bigger Corbyn’s victory the greater will be his survival chances

Comments 0 Comment

Why a clear win on first preferences is crucial The final reweighted YouGov poll on the labour leadership had Corbyn with an amazing 57% of first preferences. That was nearly a month ago and the chances are that he will struggle to be quite at that level when the official results are announced next Saturday morning. The size of his margin of victory is going to be very important because he will be taking over with less goodwill from his…

Read More Read More

This might end the mini Cooper surge and the Burnham slump

This might end the mini Cooper surge and the Burnham slump

Comments 0 Comment

Team Burnham really should shout this from the rooftops. http://t.co/ustVi1YX7x pic.twitter.com/VFkhg85yss — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 6, 2015 The Observer have reported The head of Liz Kendall’s campaign has suggested that Labour supporters will give the party’s leadership to Jeremy Corbyn if they vote for Yvette Cooper. In a dramatic intervention less than a week before the result, Toby Perkins said he believed the complexities of the alternative vote (AV) system, under which voters’ second preferences play a decisive role, left…

Read More Read More

We have the first poll with Trump leading Clinton

We have the first poll with Trump leading Clinton

Comments 0 Comment

We have the first poll with Trump leading Clinton. http://t.co/ADnajMGgy8 pic.twitter.com/zFySSGDJkJ — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 6, 2015 A poll by Survey USA was released this weekend and it found. Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump leads Democrat Hillary Clinton head-to-head, according to a new poll released Friday. The poll by SurveyUSA finds that matched up directly, Trump garners 45 percent to Clinton’s 40 percent. In other head-to-head matchups, Trump beats out Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) by 44 percent to 40 percent; Vice…

Read More Read More

One year ago today we were given a reminder that opinion polls are a snapshot not a prediction

One year ago today we were given a reminder that opinion polls are a snapshot not a prediction

Comments 0 Comment

Latest @Survation / Mail on Sunday poll on the EU and Syria. Has Out/Leave leading via @suttonnick pic.twitter.com/CCpC5LZSFs — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 5, 2015 A year ago today The Sunday Times published a YouGov poll that had Yes ahead in the Scottish Independence referendum campaign. In the history of Politicalbetting.com no other opinion poll has generated quite so much comment and reaction. It wasn’t only PBers who reacted to this poll, it led to the three Westminster Unionist parties offering The…

Read More Read More

Sir Vince Cable predicts George Osborne will be the next Prime Minister

Sir Vince Cable predicts George Osborne will be the next Prime Minister

Comments 0 Comment

In October 1974 Thatcher was 50/1 to be the next Tory leader. Less than four months later, she became Tory leader pic.twitter.com/OiALS7dNSI — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 5, 2015 The favourite this far out seldom wins the Tory leadership – Will Osborne be any different? In an interview with the Guardian today Sir Vince Cable predicts that George Osborne will be the next Prime Minister. Sir Vince like Mark Antony comes to bury Osborne, not praise him by saying Osborne is “extremely shrewd…

Read More Read More