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Voting has now closed and the speculation begins

10/9/2015 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Predicted #Labour vote shares, based on Ladbrokes' odds. Corbyn wins on first preferences. pic.twitter.com/EgaL2onfCu — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) September 10, 2015 A Â£6000 bet on Corbyn in Essex betting shop as his odds shorten again, from 1/6 to 1/7; 7/1 Cooper; 9/1 Burnham; 150/1 Kendall. #Corbyn — William Hill (@sharpeangle) September 10, 2015 Diane Abbott cut from 33/1 to 20/1 to be London Mayor as voting for Labour's candidate closes. http://t.co/QRYVOgWrgr pic.twitter.com/ovHwgpTd0W — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) September 10, 2015 .@itvnews…

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Tomorrow we might get an indication if Corbynmania is all mouth and no ballots

10/9/2015 TSE Comments 0 Comment

A victory for Baroness Jowell might give hope to the Anyone But Corbyn movement Assuming no more problems, sometime on Friday Labour will announce who has won the race to be their candidate for London Mayor. It could be that the result of this race could help be a pointer to the Labour leadership result. Lady Jowell as a Blairite should theoretically be the least appealing candidate to the returning left that have so dominated the electorate for these elections.Â A…

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Polling Matters / Political Betting Podcast with Ed Milband’s former spokesman James Stewart

9/9/2015 TSE Comments 0 Comment

In the latest PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran spoke to former Ed Miliband spokesman James Stewart about his experiences of the Scottish Referendum and General Election campaigns, why he thinks Ed Miliband was unable to win and what happens to Labour if Jeremy Corbyn becomes leader this weekend. You can follow Keiran on twitter at @keiranpedley and James at @Jimmy_Stew Keiran Pedley

Reminder: There’ve been only 2 published LAB polls the latest a month ago

9/9/2015 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

At this stage in 2007 deputy race Alan Johnson was odds-on favourite as was DavidM in 2010 Unlike in the 2010 Labour contest there has been no published polling of those eligible that has taken place since voting actually started. Last time the final YouGov poll was carried out about 6 days after the ballot packs went out and a key question was whether people had actually voted at that stage. This time the final poll was published just as…

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A second poll in a week has the Scots voting for Independence

9/9/2015 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Latest @TNS_UK poll finds 53% of Scots would vote for Independence and 47% would vote to remain in the UK http://t.co/NJOVAaXozq — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 9, 2015 This will be great news for supporters of Scottish Nationalism, though on the Holyrood voting intention questions the SNP see their lead slip but they still retain formidable leads in both categories. In a poll of 1023 adults over 16 in Scotland, 58% of those who expressed a preference would back the SNP in…

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The next Shadow Chancellor betting

9/9/2015 TSE Comments 0 Comment

The @LadPolitics latest odds on the next Shadow Chancellor pic.twitter.com/WXIfYNHMWs — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 8, 2015 Sadiq Khan at 50/1 looks like decent insurance if he doesn’t get the London Mayoral nomination. Ladbrokes have a market up on the next Shadow Chancellor. It is indicative of the anticipated Corbyn victory that John McDonnell is the current favourite. Meanwhile in the race to be Labour’s London Mayoral candidate Lady Jowell’s team think her name recognition and association with the 2012 London…

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Needed: a Geneva Convention for the 21st Century

8/9/2015 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

Tuesday’s Sun front page: Wham! Bam! ..Thank you Cam #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/d0S8pTZzeo â€” Nick Sutton (@suttonnick) September 7, 2015 The world of warfare has changed and its rules need to catch up My wife and I were recently watching the excellent More4 drama series Saboteurs, about the Nazi effort to build an atomic bomb and the Allied operations to stop them, principally by putting the Norwegian factory producing the heavy water needed for the atomic reactor out of action. At…

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Why I voted Kendall 1, Cooper 2, Burnham 3

8/9/2015 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Yvette Cooper is now Labourâ€™s best hope for returning to power argues Keiran Pedley but itâ€™s important that Liz Kendall does well. Has there been a more turbulent 6 months in the history of the Labour Party? I am sure there has but it is hard to imagine. If we rewind but a few months, many thought that Labour was heading for government with Ed Miliband as Prime Minister and yet now it is genuinely quite difficult to imagine Labour…

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