Syria: a call to alms?

Syria: a call to alms?

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Thursday morning's front pages via @suttonnick pic.twitter.com/qyPsNJAdTz — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 4, 2015 One death is a tragedy; a million is a statistic. Trite and perhaps misattributed though that quote is, it has probably never been more true than this week when the image of one young boy on a Turkish beach did more to highlight the plight of Syrian people than any number of reports of the death toll in the conflict (about 240,000 so far, including 12,000 children),…

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Understanding the Cooper surge

Understanding the Cooper surge

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As with other bookies Yvette Cooper's chances on Betfair have improved in the last 36 hours, she's now 2nd favourite pic.twitter.com/3iYuOS9Qnl — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 4, 2015 As with other bookies Burnham's chances on Betfair have declined in the last 36 hours, he was 2nd fave now 3rd fave pic.twitter.com/OWNzzoj5Nb — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 4, 2015 Ladbrokes: 74% chance Corbyn will win #Labour vote. Cooper overtakes Burnham as main threat. http://t.co/taExTpXAwj pic.twitter.com/BVUyXDZker — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) September 4, 2015 In…

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Is Hillary in trouble and can ‘The Donald’ last?

Is Hillary in trouble and can ‘The Donald’ last?

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Whilst Clinton and Trump set the pace, a host of other candidates are waiting in the wings.  Polling expert Keiran Pedley runs the rule over the 2016 US Presidential hopefuls. Having spent the past week in the U.S. visiting my wife’s parents I have been able to spend some time looking at the 2016 US Presidential race in detail. Make no mistake, the campaign is in full swing, with Iowa and New Hampshire just a few short months away. I…

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Six days until the ballot closes and some people still haven’t received their ballot papers

Six days until the ballot closes and some people still haven’t received their ballot papers

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Hmmmm http://t.co/DKqC19NDFL pic.twitter.com/9NZRzrOAZS — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 3, 2015 Last night the Guardian reported that Labour members and supporters have begun protesting to the party about their lack of ballot papers with less than a week to go before the leadership election closes. The party initially promised that 99.9% of its electorate would have received ballot papers by 28 August, but it is now refusing to disclose how many of the 554,000 have been sent out.  A initial batch of…

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Local By-Election Result : September 3rd 2015

Local By-Election Result : September 3rd 2015

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Bedwas, Trethomas and Machen on Caerphilly (Lab defence) Result: Labour 1,002 (47% -14%), Plaid Cymru 509 (24% +14%), Douglas (Independent, nominated as UKIP) 223 (11%, no candidate in 2012), Dew (Independent) 184 (9%), Conservatives 109 (5%, no candidate in 2012), Davies (Independent) 106 (5%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 493 (23%) on a swing of 14% from Labour to Plaid Cymru * Independent vote in by-election 513 (25%), Independent vote in 2012 (29%). Change: -4%

Just one by-election tonight – a Labour defence in Wales

Just one by-election tonight – a Labour defence in Wales

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Bedwas, Trethomas and Machen on Caerphilly (Lab defence) Result of council at last election (2012): Labour 50, Plaid Cymru 20, Independent 3 (Labour majority of 27) Result of ward at last election (2012): Emboldened denotes elected Labour 1,854, 1,574, 1,282, 1,181 (61%) Non Party Independents 508, 484, 409, 254 (17%) Independents 438, 389, 378 (12%) Plaid Cymru 664, 258 (10%) Candidates duly nominated: Ray Davies (Ind), Ron Davies (Plaid), John Dew (Ind), Bobby Douglas (Ind, was UKIP), Lisa Jones (Lab),…

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Will Labour “go to the mattresses” if Corbyn wins?

Will Labour “go to the mattresses” if Corbyn wins?

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Don Brind hopes that peace will break out There’s nothing erotic about going “to the mattresses”, as fans of the Godfather know. It’s violence not sex that Sonny Corleone has in mind when he declares that unless the Corleone clan get what they want “it’s all-out war, we go to the mattresses.” (It’s not safe for the “soldiers” to stay at home while the bloodletting ensues so they camp out in warehouses on those mattresses) Fears that the Labour party…

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Why Corbyn might not win the Labour leadership

Why Corbyn might not win the Labour leadership

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All the ingredients for Corbyn to lose are there The Labour leadership contest seems to share a lot of the characteristics of the 2015 general election. We have the overwhelming enthusiastic social media support for a flawed candidate (that might not end up actually casting their vote), shy Tories*, the polls showing only outcome and betting sentiment heavily in favour of the polling outcome. We’ve only had two public polls on this leadership election and the potential sampling and weighting…

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