A second poll in a week has the Scots voting for Independence

A second poll in a week has the Scots voting for Independence

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Latest @TNS_UK poll finds 53% of Scots would vote for Independence and 47% would vote to remain in the UK http://t.co/NJOVAaXozq — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 9, 2015 This will be great news for supporters of Scottish Nationalism, though on the Holyrood voting intention questions the SNP see their lead slip but they still retain formidable leads in both categories. In a poll of 1023 adults over 16 in Scotland, 58% of those who expressed a preference would back the SNP in…

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The next Shadow Chancellor betting

The next Shadow Chancellor betting

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The @LadPolitics latest odds on the next Shadow Chancellor pic.twitter.com/WXIfYNHMWs — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 8, 2015 Sadiq Khan at 50/1 looks like decent insurance if he doesn’t get the London Mayoral nomination. Ladbrokes have a market up on the next Shadow Chancellor. It is indicative of the anticipated Corbyn victory that John McDonnell is the current favourite. Meanwhile in the race to be Labour’s London Mayoral candidate Lady Jowell’s team think her name recognition and association with the 2012 London…

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Needed: a Geneva Convention for the 21st Century

Needed: a Geneva Convention for the 21st Century

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Tuesday’s Sun front page: Wham! Bam! ..Thank you Cam #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/d0S8pTZzeo — Nick Sutton (@suttonnick) September 7, 2015 The world of warfare has changed and its rules need to catch up My wife and I were recently watching the excellent More4 drama series Saboteurs, about the Nazi effort to build an atomic bomb and the Allied operations to stop them, principally by putting the Norwegian factory producing the heavy water needed for the atomic reactor out of action. At…

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Why I voted Kendall 1, Cooper 2, Burnham 3

Why I voted Kendall 1, Cooper 2, Burnham 3

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Yvette Cooper is now Labour’s best hope for returning to power argues Keiran Pedley but it’s important that Liz Kendall does well. Has there been a more turbulent 6 months in the history of the Labour Party? I am sure there has but it is hard to imagine. If we rewind but a few months, many thought that Labour was heading for government with Ed Miliband as Prime Minister and yet now it is genuinely quite difficult to imagine Labour…

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Should Labour move swiftly to depose Corbyn?

Should Labour move swiftly to depose Corbyn?

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If it were done when ’tis done, then ’twere well  It were done quickly. Trading as short as 1/6, let us assume that Jeremy Corbyn wins. Let us also assume that the electoral cause of Labour will be better served by getting rid of him. Elections are won on the centre ground, and Stephen Bush has pretty conclusively shown that non-voters are not, collectively, an alternative viable route to victory. Even if Corbyn does manage to turn out a bunch of new…

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Five more sleeps to go and Mr Corbyn’s chances of winning are rated at 81%

Five more sleeps to go and Mr Corbyn’s chances of winning are rated at 81%

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As at 7.30pm Implied probabilities of Corbyn winning according to Betfair is 81% Cooper 11% Burnham 9% Kendall < 1% pic.twitter.com/f3e4TGUCSe — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 7, 2015 Dear Labour if you elect Corbyn expect stories like this every day of his leadership. http://t.co/PohoGZg2F8 pic.twitter.com/fhYTWfoPKi — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 7, 2015 TSE Update ORB poll finds 2/3rds of people think Corbyn would be unlikely to win next general election http://t.co/UKTllXYvf1 pic.twitter.com/T94zaDKM7E — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 7, 2015 Part II of the…

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At least one contender is set to say the contest should be delayed by three days

At least one contender is set to say the contest should be delayed by three days

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If true. Blimey with knobs on. http://t.co/VWVLRCJf3C pic.twitter.com/tUKTjJMjCw — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 7, 2015 If this story by the Mail is true then whilst it will make the whole process look even more shambolic it might indicate one of the candidates thinks they can still win with late votes. So whomever is the first to call for a delay might be the one to back as I can’t see Corbyn calling for a delay. One of the problems I foresee…

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The bigger Corbyn’s victory the greater will be his survival chances

The bigger Corbyn’s victory the greater will be his survival chances

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Why a clear win on first preferences is crucial The final reweighted YouGov poll on the labour leadership had Corbyn with an amazing 57% of first preferences. That was nearly a month ago and the chances are that he will struggle to be quite at that level when the official results are announced next Saturday morning. The size of his margin of victory is going to be very important because he will be taking over with less goodwill from his…

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