Local By-Election Preview : October 7th 2015

Local By-Election Preview : October 7th 2015

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Riverside on Cardiff (Lab defence) Result of council at last election (2012): Labour 46, Liberal Democrats 16, Conservatives 7, Independents 3, Plaid Cymru 2, Heath Independent 1 (Labour majority of 17) Result of ward at last election (2012) : Emboldened denotes elected Labour 1,731, 1,555, 1,431(48%) Plaid Cymru 1,153, 944, 940 (31%) Conservatives 286, 276, 263 (8%) Green Party 294, 272, 189 (8%) Liberal Democrats 142, 129, 122 (4%) Trade Unionist and Socialist 99 (1%) Candidates duly nominated: Steffan Bateman…

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Almost all of LAB’s current problems stem from eight years ago today when Gordon Brown recorded this interview

Almost all of LAB’s current problems stem from eight years ago today when Gordon Brown recorded this interview

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The day an autumn 2007 vote was bottled Eight years today an event took place from which, I’d argue, all Labour’s trouble stem – the decision by the then PM to call off what were very advanced plans to have an early general election. Everything had been geared up for this to be called in the days after the Tory conference. Even a fleet of limousines to carry ministers about on had been booked and paid for. Three months earlier…

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Cameron’s big speech – the first reactions

Cameron’s big speech – the first reactions

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Labour needs to get rid of Corbyn – by teatime ideally — Nick Cohen (@NickCohen4) October 7, 2015 Manchester 2015 is the Tory party's Clause 4 moment. — (((Dan Hodges))) (@DPJHodges) October 7, 2015 Twitter heard a speech selling the Tories to the centre. But it was also very much a speech selling the centre to the Tories. — Hugo Rifkind (@hugorifkind) October 7, 2015 https://twitter.com/iAlexhunt/status/651722748465651713 The saddest thing is that for all his Labour Lite Karoake, Cameron is still…

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Theresa May sends a strong reminder that she’s still in the race

Theresa May sends a strong reminder that she’s still in the race

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Even Boris’s sister has gone on the attack If it was the Home Secretary’s intention yesterday to stir up some controversy and get big headlines this morning then the plan has worked very well. Above is just a selection of papers which have made her conference speech the main story. The Independent, of course, is taking a strikingly different approach to the Daily Mail but in terms of impact that doesn’t matter. Last night Rachel Johnson, the sister of Boris,…

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Great speech by Boris – but it’s had no impact on Betfair

Great speech by Boris – but it’s had no impact on Betfair

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Boris's big conference speech has had no impact on Betfair. He's still rated as a 15.5% chance to succeed Dave. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 6, 2015 The money continues to go on George This is a story that is probably going to go on for the next 3 to 4 years. Who is going to be the successor to David Cameron and will the prize go to one of the top two favourites? Those are, of course, the Chancellor…

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ComRes/Mail EU referendum poll finds CON voters more inclined to vote to stay than the electorate as a whole

ComRes/Mail EU referendum poll finds CON voters more inclined to vote to stay than the electorate as a whole

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With the coming EU referendum dominating much of the discussion at the CON conference in Manchester ComRes has new poll for the Mail out showing some quite remarkable findings. As can be seen from the chart CON voters are more inclined to say they want to stay in the EU than the electorate as a whole. This is the first time I can recall such a split and we need further surveys to support it before drawing too many conclusions….

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Extraordinary. The union boss who thinks that losing the election was a price worth paying to get Corbyn

Extraordinary. The union boss who thinks that losing the election was a price worth paying to get Corbyn

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Trade Union leader says he's glad LAB lost election because they've now got Corbyn. The world's gone mad. https://t.co/aBnCiWCkBE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 5, 2015 CWU Terry Pullinger says he's glad labour lost the election as now they have Corbyn. @LucyMPowell mouths 'I'm not clapping that!' — Owen Bennett (@owenjbennett) October 5, 2015 Trying to understand what’s happened to the Labour movement I was completely knocked out by the above Tweet posted last night about comments made by a…

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Osborne edges up further in the next CON leader betting with Boris trailing a long way behind

Osborne edges up further in the next CON leader betting with Boris trailing a long way behind

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But history suggests that strong favourites end up as losers With all the focus today being on the George Osborne speech it is inevitable that there has been a fair amount of betting on whether he will in fact become David Cameron’s successor. His price has got really quite tight and at 38% I wonder whether that is just not offering value in a contest that could be several years away. Anything can happen in the meantime and George’s stark…

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