Local By-Election Preview : October 7th 2015

Local By-Election Preview : October 7th 2015

Riverside on Cardiff (Lab defence)
Result of council at last election (2012): Labour 46, Liberal Democrats 16, Conservatives 7, Independents 3, Plaid Cymru 2, Heath Independent 1 (Labour majority of 17)
Result of ward at last election (2012) : Emboldened denotes elected
Labour 1,731, 1,555, 1,431(48%)
Plaid Cymru 1,153, 944, 940 (31%)
Conservatives 286, 276, 263 (8%)
Green Party 294, 272, 189 (8%)
Liberal Democrats 142, 129, 122 (4%)
Trade Unionist and Socialist 99 (1%)
Candidates duly nominated: Steffan Bateman (TUSC), Ruksana Begum (Plaid), Gareth Bennett (UKIP), Sean Driscoll (Con), Gwilym Owen (Lib Dem), Hannah Pudner (Green), Caro Wild (Lab)

Deja vu is defined as the feeling that is experienced when a person believes that they have lived through or experienced something before and for the electors of the Riverside ward that feeling is entirely justified as it’s only been two years since the last time they were asked to vote in a by-election. At that by-election Labour polled 50% of the vote (up 2%), Plaid Cymru polled 35% (up 4%), the Conservatives 5% (down 3%), the Liberal Democrats 3% (down 1%) and the TUSC candidate polled 3% (up 2%) with UKIP entering the field with a 4% vote share. Since then of course we have had the general election with a suggestion of Labour losing ground in Wales to the Conservatives but as this is a Labour / Plaid Cymru battleground ward it is interesting to note that in Cardiff at the general election the Labour vote increased by 4% and Plaid Cymru’s vote increased by 3% (suggesting that Labour should be able to hold off the Plaid challenge in this ward) although given that this is the sixth by-election to Cardiff since 2012 there’s a very strong chance Riverside could be doing this all over again before next November!

West Side and Ness / Taobh Siar Agus Nis on Western Isles (Ind defence)
Result of council at last election (2012): Independents 21, Scottish National Party 7, Labour 3 (Independent majority of 11)
Result of ward at last election (2012) : Emboldened denotes elected
Independents (80%)
Dunlop 94, MacLennan 119, Morrison 354 , MacKay 310 , Murray 289 E
Scottish National Party 298 (20%)
Candidate+s duly nominated: Richard Froggatt (Ind), Gavin Humphreys (Green), John MacLoed (Non Party Independent)

Deja vu is defined as the feeling that is experienced when a person believes that they have lived through or experienced something before (Hang on, haven’t I just said this?) and for the electors of West Side and Ness (Okay, this is a bit weird) this time they will actually have something to vote for (Phew, that’s a relief!). The last by-election in this ward was a complete non starter (as only one candidate was nominated) so it’s good that this time we do actually have an election (but strangely no SNP candidate) and I am wondering whether what happened in Moray last week may be a bit of a wake up call to the SNP and a way for the other parties in Scotland to halt the SNP surge that has been unchecked since the referendum, namely put an Independent candidate only against the SNP and see what happens!

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