Boris's big conference speech has had no impact on Betfair. He's still rated as a 15.5% chance to succeed Dave.
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 6, 2015
The money continues to go on George
This is a story that is probably going to go on for the next 3 to 4 years. Who is going to be the successor to David Cameron and will the prize go to one of the top two favourites?
Those are, of course, the Chancellor George Osborne and the mayor of London Boris Johnson. Until three months ago it was the mayor who occupied the favourite slot. Since then all the sentiment has moved to George. When the election eventually happens both have got very different problems.
Boris could struggle to secure enough votes from CON MPs to make the final two. George could find it hard in the final ballot of members.
The interesting feature of the past 24 hours is that Boris has chosen to use the controversial tax credit changes as a stick to beat George. With the Sun in full throttle now on side in that battle you have to wonder whether there might be an Osborne U-turn of the type we saw repeatedly after his 2012 budget?