Why we need more than the basic win market for the Oldham by-election

Why we need more than the basic win market for the Oldham by-election

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According to Betfair punters LAB is rock solid in Oldham by-election with 92.5% chance of victory pic.twitter.com/m9THvWH3Dk — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 10, 2015 The battle for the lower positions is what’s interesting The panel above shows the latest position on Betfair in the Oldham by-election. Just about all the money is being wagered on Labour and it is very difficult to see any betting interest in going against that. The judgement of punters so far is that Labour’s new…

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Antifrank: “Dangerous corners: a date for Jeremy Corbyn’s diary”

Antifrank: “Dangerous corners: a date for Jeremy Corbyn’s diary”

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Labour 2015: pic.twitter.com/dpX31o2ykt — Harry Cole (@MrHarryCole) November 8, 2015 Next March the 100th anniversary of the Irish Easter uprising A few years ago, when Labour were the natural party of government, Tony Blair ran his administration on what was known as the Grid. In essence, the Grid was a timetable of upcoming events which was used to make sure that eyecatching initiatives would not clash, be overshadowed by other events or, worse, be sabotaged by an unflattering and off-message…

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If the Times has got this right then the referendum is less than eight months away

If the Times has got this right then the referendum is less than eight months away

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Via @suttonnick Times reporting that the referendum could be next June – less than 8 months awaypic.twitter.com/cZa9AwlDP9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 8, 2015 Cameron to say that leaving EU would risk Britain’s national security The week looks set to be dominated by the EU referendum with a big speech by Cameron tomorrow and reports in the Times that David and George would like the vote to take place as soon as possible with June being seen as the earliest…

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Richard Nabavi’s guide to the Irish election part 2

Richard Nabavi’s guide to the Irish election part 2

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Votes, Seats, Coalitions As I mentioned in Part 1, an understanding the voting system is essential to understanding Irish politics. There are 40 constituencies which this time will elect a total of 158 TDs, by Single Transferable Vote (STV). Each constituency elects either 3, 4 or 5 TDs. Voters rank the candidates. The first-preference votes are counted first. Any candidate who has enough votes to exceed the ‘quota’ (i.e. the total number of voters divided by one plus the number…

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Tim Farron’s big gamble in the Oldham W & R by-election

Tim Farron’s big gamble in the Oldham W & R by-election

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Delighted to join @Jane4OldhamWR & kick off our Oldham West & Royton campaign today. Jane is a brilliant campaigner pic.twitter.com/96rdPyZNzs — Tim Farron (@timfarron) November 7, 2015 If they fail to make progress it’ll be his failure The most interesting Oldham by election development this weekend has been the decision by new Lib Dem leader, Tim Farron, to take a high profile role there. This is the first such contest since his party’s disastrous performance on May 7th, the first…

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A Republican ticket to give Hillary Clinton nightmares?

A Republican ticket to give Hillary Clinton nightmares?

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Keiran Pedley asks if a Rubio / Christie ticket (with either at the top) might be the Republican’s best bet to defeat Hillary Clinton in 2016 It is fair to say that the race for the Republican 2016 nomination is an odd one. This really should be an election that the GOP can win and yet with the national polls showing Trump and Carson leading the GOP race most observers are pretty sceptical that either will last.  Neither has held…

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