Why we need more than the basic win market for the Oldham by-election
According to Betfair punters LAB is rock solid in Oldham by-election with 92.5% chance of victory pic.twitter.com/m9THvWH3Dk
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 10, 2015
The battle for the lower positions is what’s interesting
The panel above shows the latest position on Betfair in the Oldham by-election. Just about all the money is being wagered on Labour and it is very difficult to see any betting interest in going against that.
The judgement of punters so far is that Labour’s new leader is not going to act as a negative in his first by-election contest. LAB is simply too strong there.
What we really need are some markets on the lower position order and party vote percentages. Is the cash-strapped UKIP going to be in second place and if so what sort of vote percentage can it expect to achieve?
Now the nominations have finally closed let’s hope that the bookies start offering some more interesting markets.
The one thing I really like about the by-election is that none of the nominated candidates actually live in the constituency. This means that the usual tedious rhetoric about “our man is more local than yours” is not going to be seen.