Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview with 2 LAB defences, a Plaid one and an Indy one

Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview with 2 LAB defences, a Plaid one and an Indy one

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Ogmore Vale on Bridgend (Ind defence) Result of council at last election (2012): Labour 39, Independents 10, Liberal Democrats 3, Conservatives 1, Plaid Cymru 1 (Labour majority of 24) Result of ward at last election (2012): Independent 505 (55%), Labour 414 (45%) Candidates duly nominated: Dhanisha Patel (Lab), Sally Hyde (UKIP), Ralph Shepherd (Ind), Tim Thomas (Plaid), Jamie Wallis (Con) The ward of Ogmore Vale may only have been a recent construct, but it’s electoral history goes right back to…

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The EU Referendum demographic battlegrounds and boost for SNP in latest Holyrood TNS poll

The EU Referendum demographic battlegrounds and boost for SNP in latest Holyrood TNS poll

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Huffpost EU referendum poll shows battle isYOUNG v OLDMIDDLE CLASS v WORKING CLASS https://t.co/BLuULxNAGi pic.twitter.com/CeOqmo9Oux — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 12, 2015 The pollster was James Morris whose firm polled for LAB at GE2015 and has featured in PB/Polling Matters podcasts. His article linked to above is well worth reading. REMAIN had 3% lead but so much, Morris argues, could depend on Cameron. In Scotland the latest TNS face to face survey on next year’s Holyrood elections provides more good…

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So far punters are putting their money on an EU Referendum REMAIN

So far punters are putting their money on an EU Referendum REMAIN

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This is a chart that we’ll see a lot over the coming months as we get closer to the election day in the EU referendum. My plan is to update it regularly showing changes so we can see how gambling sentiment is changing. As of 3.10 am this morning the total wagered on the Betfar Exchange was £136,420 so we are starting to observe a degree of liquidity in the market. If the Scottish IndyRef is anything to go by…

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Another day in the great referendum battle – date to be announced

Another day in the great referendum battle – date to be announced

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https://twitter.com/Stronger_In/status/664143550305722368 NHS CE Simon Stevens says it need more cash #LeaveEU https://t.co/NvjRdFD5HC pic.twitter.com/F5SBydvoPH — Leave.EU (@LeaveEUOfficial) November 11, 2015 Mission Possible: Meaningless gestures presented as meaningful reform. Read our blog here: https://t.co/g5Ybafod3G pic.twitter.com/teAJ2P2LTJ — Leave.EU (@LeaveEUOfficial) November 10, 2015

In Oldham UKIP needs to be bettering or matching its Heywood and Middleton performance to show it still has momentum

In Oldham UKIP needs to be bettering or matching its Heywood and Middleton performance to show it still has momentum

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John Bickley UKIP – 2nd favourite to win Oldham by-election https://t.co/9vjHVDFG2y — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 10, 2015 With the EU dominating the headlines the time should be ripe for the Purples Because it is the first by-election of the current parliament and because of its proximity to Heywood & Middleton where UKIP came very close just over a year ago expectations are running very high for UKIP in Oldham. The candidate is the same and, like Heywood, Oldham West…

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The latest Republican TV debate was the best so far but won’t change anything

The latest Republican TV debate was the best so far but won’t change anything

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Rubio once again the most accomplished & good for Trump Overnight we have had the latest TV debate in the search to find the Republican nominee for next year’s White House Race. Compares with the last such event a couple of weeks ago which was poorly moderated this was a far better organised and much more inormative It was organised by Fox Business and the Wall Street Journal and there were no real losers or runaway winners. It was the…

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The GOP nomination race: Pollsters now asking, with a serious reason, what was purpose of the the ancient pyramids

The GOP nomination race: Pollsters now asking, with a serious reason, what was purpose of the the ancient pyramids

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FWIW, the new @ppppolls shows @RealBenCarson supporters in SC disagree w/ him on the pyramids by a 69-9-1 margin pic.twitter.com/1DUVYo2e1J — Aaron Booth (@ActorAaronBooth) November 10, 2015 Trump says his opponent has a psychological disease The reason, of course, for this polling question is that current front-runner for the Republican nomination, the former neuro surgeon Ben Carson, has put forward an astonishing theory about their origin. This from Buzzfeed. ..He rejected the widely held belief among archaeologists that most of…

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The Sunday Trading vote: Dave/Osbo’s problem is not the SNP but the rebellion on the issue by 20 CON MPs

The Sunday Trading vote: Dave/Osbo’s problem is not the SNP but the rebellion on the issue by 20 CON MPs

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Aside from the EU a developing story at Westminster is the decision by the SNP to vote against the planned changes on Sunday trading that Osborne announced in the budget for England and Wales. In Scotland this is a devolved matter with decisions being made at Holyrood. Inevitably this will raise the whole English Votes for English Laws (EVEL) debate because of the devolved nature of such a measure. But before we get too deep into this let’s remember that…

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