This is a chart that we’ll see a lot over the coming months as we get closer to the election day in the EU referendum. My plan is to update it regularly showing changes so we can see how gambling sentiment is changing.
As of 3.10 am this morning the total wagered on the Betfar Exchange was Â£136,420 so we are starting to observe a degree of liquidity in the market. If the Scottish IndyRef is anything to go by then the total wagered on Betfair alone could be at least Â£20m by the time the votes are being counted.
What was interesting about the betting markets in the run-up to that seismic political event was what happened after the famous YouGov poll with 11 days to go showing YES in the lead. Basically the betting barely moved from its strong NO position. Punters didn’t believe what turned out to be an almost isolated set of findings.
The latest EU Referendum polls
All the latest EU Referendum polls pic.twitter.com/nUuc9Qal7O
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 12, 2015
So far I’ve not been tempted to bet. My view is that things will get much more lively once the data is fixed and that might be some time. It has been suggested that if the move to extend the franchise is extended to 16 year olds then that could delay it. Clearly the electoral roll will have to be revised.