Keiran Pedley says Corbyn is here to stay and Labour’s moderates have some thinking to do

Keiran Pedley says Corbyn is here to stay and Labour’s moderates have some thinking to do

After a bruising week, Jeremy Corbyn has emerged stronger than ever writes Keiran Pedley leaving Labour’s moderates with plenty to think about. Every now and then a week comes along in British politics that is genuinely important and shapes what is to come. Last week was one of them. All of the ingredients pointed to a disaster for Jeremy Corbyn. From allegations that the leadership was ‘bullying’ MPs with farcical ‘consultations’ to a divisive Syria vote and THAT Hilary Benn…

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In a 140 charcacter tweet Glen O’Hara sums up the YouGov investigation into its GE2015 polling fail

In a 140 charcacter tweet Glen O’Hara sums up the YouGov investigation into its GE2015 polling fail

Basically, too many pol engaged and/ or young people as a share of the sample. A bit like listening to Twitter. https://t.co/xoRZf2Klo9 — Glen O'Hara (@gsoh31) December 7, 2015 The big polling news tonight has been the publication of YouGov’s own inquiry into what went wrong. There’s a good summary by the firm’s Anthony Wells on his blog UK Polling report here. A real problem that has been mentioned many times before is that those who take part in political…

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Seven weeks to go before Iowa and Trump remains totally dominant

Seven weeks to go before Iowa and Trump remains totally dominant

RCP Polling Average GOP Nominee Seven weeks tomorrow the first state to decide in next year’s White House Race will choose which of the Democratic and Republican Party hopefuls will be their choice as nominees. Hillary Clinton looks as though she has sewn up the Democratic race and most of the attention is on the Republicans. The chart above shows the national trend and as can be seen the property billionaire turned TV star is now back at his former…

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The EU Referendum: Douglas Carswell’s absolutely right about this ad even if it was meant to be joke

The EU Referendum: Douglas Carswell’s absolutely right about this ad even if it was meant to be joke

https://twitter.com/DouglasCarswell/status/673591195986206721 This sort of thing can be thrown back at referendum campaigners When I tweeted the above ad from Leave.EU UKIP’s MP, Douglas Carswell, was one of the first to respond. His annoyance was correct. This is a serious campaign with so much at stake and the argument should be based on facts not made up statements like in the ad even if it was meant to be a joke. In the coming months, and perhaps years, before we finally…

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Happy tenth anniversary David

Happy tenth anniversary David

For 70% of Cameron's 10yrs as leader he's been ahead of his Lab opponent, in @IpsosMORI net satisfaction terms pic.twitter.com/qY5wuvQ8CS — TSE (@TSEofPB) December 6, 2015 Today is the tenth anniversary of David Cameron’s election as Conservative Leader, and what a ten years it has been. The above chart neatly encapsulates why David Cameron is seen as the Conservative Party’s strongest asset, for around 70% of his tenure, he has led his Labour opponent on this front. With Cameron not standing…

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CSI Oldham: The by-election autopsy

CSI Oldham: The by-election autopsy

Alastair Meeks reviews the Oldham West and Royton by election After any betting event, successful or unsuccessful, it is important to take stock of what went wrong and what went right.  This is especially important when expectations were completely upended, as happened on Thursday night in the Oldham West & Royton by-election. What happened? Contrary to all prior expectations, Labour not only won comfortably, it increased its share of the vote.  This should not have been a surprise.  As I…

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The date of the next Labour leadership election betting

The date of the next Labour leadership election betting

Paddy Power have a market up on the date of the next Labour leadership election. I quite like this market because most of the other markets on the Labour leadership are about when Jeremy Corbyn ceases to be Labour leader, this market allows for an unsuccessful attempt to remove to Corbyn. I initially started writing this piece on Friday morning and was going to suggest that 2019 might be value, as a year before a general election might focus minds,…

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Only one PB Oldham competition entrant over-stated Labour in the by-election and he wins by a huge margin

Only one PB Oldham competition entrant over-stated Labour in the by-election and he wins by a huge margin

Congratulations and the prize to Michael Paterson The sensational Oldham result took all but one of the 320 PB competition entrants by surprise. Michael Paterson wins the prize of the Cowley/Kavanagh book of the 2015 general election Here’s a full list of all the entries in winning order. Thanks again to Mark Hopkins of Nojam for providing the excellent competition widget. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet