Oldham has firmed up the chances of a Labocalypse

Oldham has firmed up the chances of a Labocalypse

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Corbyn is now safe for months It’s been an up-and-down week for Labour. Rows, splits, mishandled Autumn Budget replies – all forgotten in one swift and decisive victory. Except that’s not true: they’ve not been forgotten and although Labour’s right has gained a new MP, tilting the PLP even further away from the leadership, it’s the left of the party that’s gained the strategic victory. Most obviously but also most transiently, the news narrative has turned positive for Labour and…

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Local By-Election and Westminster By-Election Results : December 3rd 2015

Local By-Election and Westminster By-Election Results : December 3rd 2015

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Ash South and Tongham on Guildford (Con defence) Result: Conservative 540 (43% unchanged), Liberal Democrat 286 (23% +6%), United Kingdom Independence Party 153 (12%, no candidate in 2015), Guildford Greenbelt 145 (12% -7%), Labour 125 (10% -11%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 254 (17%) on a swing of 3% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat Teme Valley on Malvern Hills (Con defence) Result: Conservative 266 (64% -8%), Labour 96 (23%, no candidate in 2015), United Kingdom Independence Party 56 (13%…

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Echoes of History: Hilary Benn and Michael Foot

Echoes of History: Hilary Benn and Michael Foot

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Echoes of history. Donald Brind compares Hilary Benn’s speech on Syrian air strikes to Michael Foot’s on the Falklands. How to draw the sting from Hilary Benn’s brilliant wind-up speech in the Commons debate on Syria air strikes? That was the problem facing Labour and SNP opponents of the military action who were on the wrong end of the 179 majority. They set out to kill it with comparisons. For Labour, the shadow chancellor John McDonnell said it reminded him of…

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The latest PB/Polling Matters Podcast – Reflections on Oldham, Syria, Polling, and Benn

The latest PB/Polling Matters Podcast – Reflections on Oldham, Syria, Polling, and Benn

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https://twitter.com/OliverRyan95/status/672390646989258753 This week’s podcast reacts to a momentous week in British politics as parliament votes to approve airstrikes in Syria and Labour convincingly holds Oldham West and Royton in Thursday’s by-election. What role has polling played? How strong is Jeremy Corbyn after a tough week and should public opinion really influence complex foreign policy decisions? Finally, how likely is it that Hilary Benn could replace Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader in the future? Keiran discusses these issues with Rob Vance…

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My six takeaways from Labour’s sensational win in Oldham

My six takeaways from Labour’s sensational win in Oldham

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The default assumption when parties talk about “internal polling” should be that they are lying From the Telegraph 6 days ago. UKIP "private polling" https://t.co/UmvQ4C48hc pic.twitter.com/oodjyDffh2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 4, 2015 The assumption that Oldham’s Tory voters would switch to UKIP was wrong It has often been said that of all party supporters followers of the blue team are least likely to vote tactically and this was seen again last night. The idea that a large slab of…

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Labour win the Oldham West and Royton by election with an increased share of the vote

Labour win the Oldham West and Royton by election with an increased share of the vote

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LAB 62.2% (+7.5)UKIP 23.3 % (+2.7) CON 9.3% (-9.6) LD 3.7% (+0.0) GR 0.9% (-1.0) MRLP 0.5% (+0.5) via @britainelects pic.twitter.com/1nTrPjwFZC — TSE (@TSEofPB) December 4, 2015 Corbyn has done better than Cameron did in his first by election that he defended as leader. This is the result that wasn’t forecast, perhaps Jeremy Corbyn isn’t the voter repellent that the polling and the commentariat implies. Speaking this evening John Curtice has just said we expect the major opposition parties do…

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The PB Oldham Prediction and this week’s local by-elections

The PB Oldham Prediction and this week’s local by-elections

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The average predictions in our prize competition Ash South and Tongham on Guildford (Con defence) Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 35, Liberal Democrats 9, Guildford Greenbelt 3, Labour 1 (Conservative majority of 22) Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives 2,299, 2,199, 2,104 (43%) Labour 1,113 (21%) Guildford Greenbelt 999 (19%) Liberal Democrats 900, 665 (17%) Candidates duly nominated: George Dokimakis (Lab), Andrew Gomm (Con), Kyle Greaves (UKIP), Alan Hilliar (Lib Dem), Ramsey…

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Wulfrun Phil says the Syria vote could decide the LAB succession

Wulfrun Phil says the Syria vote could decide the LAB succession

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Great picture via @MattChorley of Corbyn and Hillary Bennpic.twitter.com/GA5NG0Qtmp — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 3, 2015 But it may not work to Hilary Benn’s advantage As the odds on Hilary Benn succeeding Jeremy Corbyn shorten, the political betting market is clear in its prediction – that the successor to Corbyn is very likely to be one of those who supported air strikes in yesterday’s vote. Almost all of those with the shortest odds come from that camp – Benn at…

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