Paddy Power have a market up on the date of the next Labour leadership election. I quite like this market because most of the other markets on the Labour leadership are about when Jeremy Corbyn ceases to be Labour leader, this market allows for an unsuccessful attempt to remove to Corbyn.
I initially started writing this piece on Friday morning and was going to suggest that 2019 might be value, as a year before a general election might focus minds, if Corbyn’s leader ratings maintain their current trajectory. However experience is teaching us writing Corbyn based threads long in advance is very risky, and this is no different.
Last night several newspapers reported that there are plans by Corbyn’s aides for a New Year reshuffleÂ to sack shadow cabinet ministers who disagree with Corbyn’s anti-war policies whilst some shadow cabinet ministers are expressing similar fears, all due Corbyn feeling emboldened by the result in Oldham West and Royton.
One Corbynâ€‘supporting Labour shadow minister said: â€œEvery constituency is going to be redrawn. This is a great opportunity to protect some people and get rid of others.â€
If Corbyn does engage in a revenge reshuffle coupled with next May’s elections being as horrifically bad for Labour as some fear then you should be taking the 3/1 on 2016. But given Labour’s past history of leaving poorly performing leaders in situ, then you can understand why the 2020 or later is the favourite.
With most of the Parliamentary Labour Party being in such fundamental disagreement with Corbyn and the membership, my own feeling is Labour can’t go on like this for much longer and those purged and the soon to be purged might make plans to topple Corbyn as a result, as the last two poorly performing Labour leaders weren’t planning any purges, so those expecting Labour not to have the cojones to remove Corbyn might be mistaken as the current situation isn’t like the Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband eras.
Below is the front page of the Independent on Sunday that neatly summarises the various issues within the Labour party.
— TSE (@TSEofPB) December 6, 2015