Taking the 66 to 1 on Michael Fallon as next Tory Leader

Taking the 66 to 1 on Michael Fallon as next Tory Leader

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National Security is going to feature heavily in 2020 and that’s not good news for Corbyn nor Labour but it might be good news for Michael Fallon The attack in the video above on Ed Miliband during the general election campaign was absolutely brutal and deeply personal but the most important thing for both the Tories and Labour, it was an utterly devastating for Ed Miliband and Labour. With 71% of voters not trusting Corbyn to safeguard Britain’s national security you can…

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Just like in the 80s a Benn is causing headaches for the Labour leader

Just like in the 80s a Benn is causing headaches for the Labour leader

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Given her history with the cross of St George this might not help Corbyn's patriotism issue. https://t.co/z0KbUGtWrd pic.twitter.com/OKvVxQ4ol3 — TSE (@TSEofPB) January 2, 2016 Several of Sunday’s papers have stories about Jeremy Corbyn’s planned ‘revenge’ reshuffle, The Sunday Telegraph report, Jeremy Corbyn is lining up Emily Thornberry as his new foreign secretary to replace Hilary Benn, in a reshuffle of his shadow cabinet expected next week, the Sunday Telegraph understands. The Labour leader is planning to appoint Ms Thornberry, the former…

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In Labour’s entire history just one general election winning leader was the choice of the membership

In Labour’s entire history just one general election winning leader was the choice of the membership

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Watering down the power of MPs has created big problems. Looking at the current gulf between the Parliamentary Labour Party and its leader it is perhaps worth reminding ourselves that party members had no say whatsoever in leadership elections until after the 1983 general election when the party, under Michael Foot, went down to its biggest defeat. He had been chosen by MPs alone and in the first MP ballot in 1980 chalked up just 31.3% of the vote against…

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British politics 2016 in one word: Europe

British politics 2016 in one word: Europe

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One issue; three interlinking components Can 2016 live up to the excitement that last year gave us? Remarkably, it could. Internationally, the extremely interesting year-long elections in the US may well produce the first female president of the United States (albeit the wife of a former president), and if not, could well put an untested populist with no political experience in the White House. But in Britain, one issue is likely to dominate: the European referendum on David Cameron’s deal…

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Tim Montgomerie’s right: Current government policy decisions are driven by need not to be unpopular on EURef day

Tim Montgomerie’s right: Current government policy decisions are driven by need not to be unpopular on EURef day

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Airport delay. Tax cred Uturn. Slower cuts… Me for @CapX on No10's pre-referendum campaign https://t.co/mXTlrvH2nz pic.twitter.com/xkRM6je9xo — Tim Montgomerie ?? (@montie) January 1, 2016 Everything for the next few months is about the EU vote One of the great problems with referenda is that by the time we get to polling day the issue might have moved on from the issue on the ballot paper to a vote of confidence in the incumbent government. Arguably the AV vote in 2011…

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As the New Year rolls in Alastair Meeks makes his predictions

As the New Year rolls in Alastair Meeks makes his predictions

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2016: Things that mostly won’t happen Making predictions is a mug’s game as I showed in my last post.  So I shall now prove that I have not learned from experience and have another go. To understand where we are going, we first need to understand where we are now.  Politics has changed out of all recognition since the general election.  Let’s sum up the essentials: We have a Conservative government with a tiny overall majority. We have a Labour…

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Star War images: Jedi Jezza and Stormtrooper Osbo

Star War images: Jedi Jezza and Stormtrooper Osbo

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The Donald Brind column – from a Labour perspective An old joke was given fresh legs just before Christmas when George Osborne set out to sprinkle some stardust on his image with an appearance at the premiere of Star Wars. Q. Why did 4,000 people boo George Osborne? A. Because that’s how many the cinema holds. In the original version it was the 80,000 capacity of the Olympic stadium that limited the opprobrium heaped on the Chancellor during the 2012…

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All the pollsters finding that current LAB voters reluctant to give Corbyn their full backing

All the pollsters finding that current LAB voters reluctant to give Corbyn their full backing

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Corbyn has got the Ed Miliband problem Looking back over GE2015 polls what should have raised questions about the voting intention findings was that in all the leader ratings of different forms Ed Miliband was always a long way behind Cameron. I made that mistake. People are voting for a Prime Minister and their view of the contenders is, as I’ve argued, a much better pointer to election outcomes than their party choice where the polls have failed twice in…

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