Taking the 66 to 1 on Michael Fallon as next Tory Leader

Taking the 66 to 1 on Michael Fallon as next Tory Leader

National Security is going to feature heavily in 2020 and that’s not good news for Corbyn nor Labour but it might be good news for Michael Fallon

The attack in the video above on Ed Miliband during the general election campaign was absolutely brutal and deeply personal but the most important thing for both the Tories and Labour, it was an utterly devastating for Ed Miliband and Labour. With 71% of voters not trusting Corbyn to safeguard Britain’s national security you can see the Tories repeating their attacks on Corbyn and the risks he presents to national security. Especially if he keeps on making gaffes like his comments on shoot-to-kill in the aftermath of the Paris terrorist attacks

When you add in John McDonnell’s back catalogue on the IRA, then you don’t have to be imbued with the genius of Sir Lynton Crosby to know the 2020 general election will see national security feature heavily because the country won’t elect as Prime Minister someone they consider a risk to national security.

This isn’t a Tory conceit but reality because when senior Labour people like former Defence Secretary Lord Hutton say ‘Jeremy Corbyn is a threat to national security’ the Tory leaflets and adverts in 2020 (and prior to that) write themselves.

The cynic in me thinks David Cameron’s terrorist sympathisers comment wasn’t said as an off the cuff comment for private consumption, as one of the Tory Party’s first responses to Corbyn becoming Labour leader was to say Corbyn is a threat to national security and your family’s security.

In May 2015 the Tories pushed their competence and security v chaos/risk meme, if the Tories want to emphasise their competence and their strong lead on matters of national security then Michael Fallon makes sense as Tory leader, as with his attack Ed Miliband he can cope with the white heat of a general election campaign.

As has been noted before, often winning the Tory leadership is about who you aren’t not about who you are, which helps previously unfancied candidates, Michael Fallon could easily be the stop X candidate, which has helped long odds candidates.

With the Trident replacement vote expected this year and the ongoing campaign against and threats from ISIS, 2016 might be the year that Michael Fallon’s public profile rises. Whilst some might say his age might count against him, he turns 64 this year, but he’s five years younger than the favourite to be the President of the United States of America.

At the time of writing, Michael Fallon’s best odds as next Tory leader were 66/1 with Paddy Power. 


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