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Local By-Election Review 2015 : Part One

30/12/2015 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Running before the Storm : Before the General Election (24 local by-elections) It was fairly obvious as soon as Big Ben chimed midnight ushering in the arrival of 2015 that everyone’s mind would instantly focus on the general election (indeed some of the parties started campaigning almost immediately the Christmas decorations came down) but local by-elections are no respecter of national campaigns and within days of those decorations coming down the local by-election circus started up again in Bolsover where…

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How much should those with 33/1 Sadiq Khan vouchers cover themselves on a Zac victory?

30/12/2015 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

A betting position that’s very nice to be in Back in March 2013 Henry G Manson gave what might prove to be one of the best ever political betting tips here when he said get on Sadiq Khan, then at 33/1, for next London Mayor. At the time other Labour figures were seen as having better chances of being selected as candidate for the next Mayoral election. Henry G, with his great knowledge of how LAB works, thought differently and…

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Alastair Meeks compares his predictions for 2015 with what actually happened

30/12/2015 TSE Comments 0 Comment

2015 â€“ the past is a country of which I knew little Every year I sit down at Christmas and try to work out what will happen in the following twelve months.Â I do this not because I have any great confidence in my predictive power – as you’re about to see, that would be an illustration of the Dunning-Kruger effect â€“ but because it is useful to have a record of what I thought might be going to happen…

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The internal squabbles in Mr. Corbyn’s Labour – part 105

29/12/2015 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The tweet that LAB whip Graham Morris has now deleted. pic.twitter.com/BQ4b09Bn68 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 29, 2015 @georgeeaton Shows the real agenda of the 15 or so MP's who support Corbyn though.Seumas Milne is arranging all the briefings of course. — ForgottenGenius (@ExStrategist) December 29, 2015 Well, there's spin. And then there's this. https://t.co/wre3GEZZ4o pic.twitter.com/ALY0dNNIGv — Liam Hill (@liamjlhill) December 29, 2015 Team Corbyn seems more interested in fighting LAB dissenters who it often refers to as Tories than…

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Zac to win mayoralty, Corbyn to survive, Trump to fail: Ipsos MORI poll on what people think will happen in 2016

29/12/2015 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Ipsos MORI poll on what Britons think will happen in 2016 pic.twitter.com/3iMR8qkECm — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 29, 2015 Ipsos MORI 2016 prediction poll – Sport etc pic.twitter.com/V2zVmIrJqY — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 29, 2015 Ipsos MORI 2016 prediction poll Economic pic.twitter.com/aSm7PtQwHC — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 29, 2015 Welcome 2016 – Prediction Time It’s that time of year when people look to the next year and start making predictions. One new development on this that I don’t recall seeing…

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Cross-over voting could be the biggest threat to Trump in New Hampshire the 1st full primary state:

29/12/2015 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

RCP New Hampshire GOP Voters decide which party primary to vote in and non-Republicans might try to stop Trump One of the hardest thing for many in Britain to understand is that each state in the US operates its primaries differently. Iowa has it caucuses where the party choices are determined in 1,600 precinct meeting across the state. The organisation of these is carried out by the parties. In New Hampshire where the first full primary takes place voters can…

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Three words pollsters would rather you didnâ€™t mention; differential non response

28/12/2015 Editor Comments 0 Comment

A special column by ex-ICM boss & polling pioneer, Nick Sparrow While trumpeting the fact that samples are representative of the adult population, researchers seldom, if ever, publish response rate data. Truth is that for telephone polls, response rates are frighteningly low and falling. The reasons for this are varied, but include the fact that many of us have become wary of calls from strangers, having been bombarded with unsolicited sales calls and by â€œsuggersâ€, the industry term for people…

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Clegg’s YouGov ratings were substantially better than Corbyn’s now getting just before the election that saw his party almost wiped out

28/12/2015 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

me> Corbynistas in denial about his dire ratings – historically best pointer to GE outcomes. Chart via @liamjlhill pic.twitter.com/w4rR3LGPyw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 27, 2015 One of the polling elements that I’ve been highlighting in recent weeks is how leader ratings have proved to be a better pointer to electoral outcomes than voting intention polling. The above charts seek to put into context Corbyn’s latest ratings. Clearly there’s four and a half years still to go and things can…

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