Clegg’s YouGov ratings were substantially better than Corbyn’s now getting just before the election that saw his party almost wiped out

Clegg’s YouGov ratings were substantially better than Corbyn’s now getting just before the election that saw his party almost wiped out

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me> Corbynistas in denial about his dire ratings – historically best pointer to GE outcomes. Chart via @liamjlhill pic.twitter.com/w4rR3LGPyw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 27, 2015 One of the polling elements that I’ve been highlighting in recent weeks is how leader ratings have proved to be a better pointer to electoral outcomes than voting intention polling. The above charts seek to put into context Corbyn’s latest ratings. Clearly there’s four and a half years still to go and things can…

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Questioning the patriotism of Remain voters will not win the referendum for Leave

Questioning the patriotism of Remain voters will not win the referendum for Leave

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Margaret Thatcher showing off her pro-EU credentials in the 1975 referendum. pic.twitter.com/jrX2Oyz7Hj — TSE (@TSEofPB) December 27, 2015 This week William Hague explained why he would vote for the UK to Remain in the EU in the upcoming referendum, as a former Tory leader and Foreign Secretary this inevitably led to a lot of comment about someone who has been considered a Eurosceptic voting for Remain. For me the most illuminating comment came from Mark Reckless, the former Tory MP…

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The 2016 elections do not bode well for Labour

The 2016 elections do not bode well for Labour

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Corbyn is set to do worse than Ed Miliband in his first major electoral test. In the Sunday Times (££)  Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher have analysed the 60 local council elections since Jeremy Corbyn became leader. The best way to measure what is happening, however, is to look at the changes in those places where a post-Corbyn by-election reprises a contest previously held on general election day earlier this year. There are 27 such cases where Labour fielded a candidate…

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Coinciding with the traditional Boxing Day meets the traditional Boxing Day fox hunting poll

Coinciding with the traditional Boxing Day meets the traditional Boxing Day fox hunting poll

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By 83% to 15% those sampled by @IpsosMORI say fox-hunting should NOT be made legal again. CON voters split 70-27% against legalisation — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 26, 2015 @IpsosMORI Hunting poll; Rural residents MORE LIKELY to be opposed to legalisation. 84% -12% as opposed to 82-15%. https://t.co/rRHFjueNjv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 26, 2015 Detail of findings – @IpsosMORI "Should hunting be legalised" polling pic.twitter.com/WQ2bJt5SeF — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 26, 2015 There doesn’t seem much support for a…

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The PB/Polling Matters end of year podcast. Looking ahead to 2016 (WH2016, EURef & May elections)

The PB/Polling Matters end of year podcast. Looking ahead to 2016 (WH2016, EURef & May elections)

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After Christmas back to normal pic.twitter.com/qp16M7rRyM — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 25, 2015 In part 2 of the PB/Polling Matters End of 2015 special, Keiran, Rob and Matt look ahead to 2016 and discuss the race for the White House, EU referendum, May elections and more including: 1) Is identity politics replacing class as the number one issue defining our politics in the UK and elsewhere? 2) What is the best and worst case scenario for Hilary Clinton in terms…

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StJohn returns with his annual Christmas Day Crossword

StJohn returns with his annual Christmas Day Crossword

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A welcome return to what was a PB Christmas Day tradition There was a time when Christmas Day on PB wasn’t Christmas Day without the annual crossword by St John. We’ll this year he’s back and here it is. Enjoy and have a great day. Thanks to everybody who had made the site what it is. To my son Robert whose hobby since for nearly 12 years had been keeping the technical infrastructure working a big thanks. Also to TSE…

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A big thank you to whoever sent me the mystery bottle of Dom Perigon 2004

A big thank you to whoever sent me the mystery bottle of Dom Perigon 2004

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Merry Christmas to him/her and to all PBers Amidst all the online deliveries to my home this week there was one package for which I have been unable to trace the source. It contained a bottle of vintage champagne- a Dom Perigon 2004 which, as a quick Google search discovered, costs quite a lot of money. Unfortunately there was no card or other means to identify the sender so I am unable to say thank you directly. It was addressed…

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