Keiran Pedley asks Is 2016 the year David Cameron loses the Conservative Party?

Keiran Pedley asks Is 2016 the year David Cameron loses the Conservative Party?

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After a turbulent year the Prime Minister enters 2016 stronger than ever writes Keiran Pedley. But will it last? In many respects 2015 was a year of contradictions. On the one hand, it was the year of the political insurgent. UKIP won the best part of 4 million votes at the General Election (though failed to make the breakthrough in seats it had hoped for), the SNP won 56 of 59 seats at Westminster and Jeremy Corbyn swept away the…

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Keeping Benn as shadow Foreign Sec could make Corbyn look weak but sacking him could be even more dangerous

Keeping Benn as shadow Foreign Sec could make Corbyn look weak but sacking him could be even more dangerous

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Hilary Benn in last month's Syria debate with Corbyn at his side pic.twitter.com/Nulzb0u7A4 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 3, 2016 Reshuffles are tricky times for leaders At present I haven’t seen any betting markets on Hilary Benn’s survival as Corbyn’s shadow Foreign Secretary but no doubt these will be opened. There could be three options: Benn stays in current role: Benn remains as part of top team but in a different role or Benn out of the shadow cabinet completely….

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Taking the 66 to 1 on Michael Fallon as next Tory Leader

Taking the 66 to 1 on Michael Fallon as next Tory Leader

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National Security is going to feature heavily in 2020 and that’s not good news for Corbyn nor Labour but it might be good news for Michael Fallon The attack in the video above on Ed Miliband during the general election campaign was absolutely brutal and deeply personal but the most important thing for both the Tories and Labour, it was an utterly devastating for Ed Miliband and Labour. With 71% of voters not trusting Corbyn to safeguard Britain’s national security you can…

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Just like in the 80s a Benn is causing headaches for the Labour leader

Just like in the 80s a Benn is causing headaches for the Labour leader

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Given her history with the cross of St George this might not help Corbyn's patriotism issue. https://t.co/z0KbUGtWrd pic.twitter.com/OKvVxQ4ol3 — TSE (@TSEofPB) January 2, 2016 Several of Sunday’s papers have stories about Jeremy Corbyn’s planned ‘revenge’ reshuffle, The Sunday Telegraph report, Jeremy Corbyn is lining up Emily Thornberry as his new foreign secretary to replace Hilary Benn, in a reshuffle of his shadow cabinet expected next week, the Sunday Telegraph understands. The Labour leader is planning to appoint Ms Thornberry, the former…

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In Labour’s entire history just one general election winning leader was the choice of the membership

In Labour’s entire history just one general election winning leader was the choice of the membership

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Watering down the power of MPs has created big problems. Looking at the current gulf between the Parliamentary Labour Party and its leader it is perhaps worth reminding ourselves that party members had no say whatsoever in leadership elections until after the 1983 general election when the party, under Michael Foot, went down to its biggest defeat. He had been chosen by MPs alone and in the first MP ballot in 1980 chalked up just 31.3% of the vote against…

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British politics 2016 in one word: Europe

British politics 2016 in one word: Europe

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One issue; three interlinking components Can 2016 live up to the excitement that last year gave us? Remarkably, it could. Internationally, the extremely interesting year-long elections in the US may well produce the first female president of the United States (albeit the wife of a former president), and if not, could well put an untested populist with no political experience in the White House. But in Britain, one issue is likely to dominate: the European referendum on David Cameron’s deal…

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Tim Montgomerie’s right: Current government policy decisions are driven by need not to be unpopular on EURef day

Tim Montgomerie’s right: Current government policy decisions are driven by need not to be unpopular on EURef day

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Airport delay. Tax cred Uturn. Slower cuts… Me for @CapX on No10's pre-referendum campaign https://t.co/mXTlrvH2nz pic.twitter.com/xkRM6je9xo — Tim Montgomerie ?? (@montie) January 1, 2016 Everything for the next few months is about the EU vote One of the great problems with referenda is that by the time we get to polling day the issue might have moved on from the issue on the ballot paper to a vote of confidence in the incumbent government. Arguably the AV vote in 2011…

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As the New Year rolls in Alastair Meeks makes his predictions

As the New Year rolls in Alastair Meeks makes his predictions

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2016: Things that mostly won’t happen Making predictions is a mug’s game as I showed in my last post.  So I shall now prove that I have not learned from experience and have another go. To understand where we are going, we first need to understand where we are now.  Politics has changed out of all recognition since the general election.  Let’s sum up the essentials: We have a Conservative government with a tiny overall majority. We have a Labour…

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