Trump could take New Hampshire with just 29% because opposition to him is split amongst so many opponents

Trump could take New Hampshire with just 29% because opposition to him is split amongst so many opponents

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The first full primary is only a month away The big political betting story over the next few weeks is going to be the fight for the Republican nomination in the first states to decide. In Iowa, with it caucuses where people vote at precinct meetings it’s looking pretty good for Ted Cruz who is strong favourite. The second state is New Hampshire, with its full primary, on February 9th and here Donald Trump has been in a strong position…

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What all CON ministers have been wanting: A definitive guide to where their party voters stand on the EURef

What all CON ministers have been wanting: A definitive guide to where their party voters stand on the EURef

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Now they’ve got the freedom this should help them make up their minds or not The other big political development this week has been the move to allow CON ministers to speak out on either side in the EU referendum campaign. Some of them, no doubt, will consult the polls to see how their general elections voters are viewing thinfs. If CON ministers are doing this, however, they’ll find it very confusing. The chart is restricted solely to CON voters…

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Corbyn’s reshuffle – the aftermath with more resignations expected

Corbyn’s reshuffle – the aftermath with more resignations expected

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Glum faces on Labour's front bench pic.twitter.com/dNnKUzp2hs — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 6, 2016 How politics works 2016. Stephen Doughty just quit as Shad Foreign minister live on BBCDaily Politics. Was kinda obvs given tweet in wee hrs — Paul Waugh MP (@paulwaugh) January 6, 2016 The appointment of Emily Thornberry as Shadow Defence Secretary confirms the Labour Party is a threat to our national security. — CCHQ Press (@CCHQPress) January 6, 2016 First resignation in wake of Labour reshuffle…

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Whoever started the briefing about a “revenge reshuffle” has done Corbyn no favours

Whoever started the briefing about a “revenge reshuffle” has done Corbyn no favours

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So after all of that Hilary Benn retains his Shadow Foreign Secretary jobhttps://t.co/qnFEtf3Bvd pic.twitter.com/kLTdSNNRQG — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 6, 2016 The changes don’t live up to the billing In the end the news that Hilary Benn would remain in post came at 1.07 am and the overall package appears little different from what it was before. Benn is still there while Emily Thornberry replaces Maria Eagle as shadow defence secretary. She in turn switches to the culture job. Full…

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Now Labour’s divisions are being talked about as being “a Political Civil War”

Now Labour’s divisions are being talked about as being “a Political Civil War”

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Statement from Labour First From Labour First – what a political civil war looks like: pic.twitter.com/ysX1QHnOOu — Glen O'Hara (@gsoh31) January 5, 2016 The fallout over the “Revenge Reshuffle” goes on What a day. First there was the news that Cameron is to allow ministers freedom to campaign for LEAVE in EURef campaign… and Corbyn’s reshuffle is sending our reverberations that look set to make any form of reconciliation in the party nigh on impossible. From the information that’s coming…

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Mark Pack on his polling archive database

Mark Pack on his polling archive database

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Way back in the 1980s, one day I was watching David Owen being interviewed on television, responding to probing questions about the then Alliance’s opinion polls ratings by saying there was a seasonal pattern in third party support in the polls. Frustration with the lack of detail in his answers or knowledge in the interviewer’s follow-up questions turned into a fruitless search for sources for answering the question afterwards. Which then led to the birth of my collection of opinion…

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Farage’s ratings tumble could impact on who runs the LEAVE campaign

Farage’s ratings tumble could impact on who runs the LEAVE campaign

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Newly released YouGov leader ratings see Farage dropping sharply. Doing well figure down from 37% to 31%. Doing badly up from 40% to 49%. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 5, 2016 Could he be a liability to the BREXIT effort not an asset While all the focus of late had been on Corbyn’s LAB another big political decision which could have huge consequences is so far unresolved. Who is going to lead and be the public voice of the LEAVE…

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It’s very rare for a SHADOW cabinet re-reshuffle to get so much attention

It’s very rare for a SHADOW cabinet re-reshuffle to get so much attention

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The LAB reshuffle rolling thread Hilary Benn leaves Corbyn meeting- says "I'm heading back to my office and am not making any comment" — Rowena Mason (@rowenamason) January 4, 2016 I'm hearing Trotsky to Siberia… #labour #reshuffle — Iain Martin (@iainmartin1) January 4, 2016 #Reshuffle Benn likely to switch jobs: pic.twitter.com/Y8Yw14JcUr — Andrea Mann (@AndreaMann) January 4, 2016 Senior Labour source says "golden rule" of reshuffles is "never ever pre-brief anything until you know you've pulled it off". — George…

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