This week’s PB/Polling Matters Podcast puts the focus on UKIP with leading academic expert Prof Matt Goodwin

This week’s PB/Polling Matters Podcast puts the focus on UKIP with leading academic expert Prof Matt Goodwin

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So what now for Farage’s party and the Referendum Campaign This week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast talks about UKIP and the upcoming EU referendum with Professor Matthew Goodwin of the University of Kent. Goodwin is one of the foremost experts on UKIP and is co-author of ‘Revolt on the Right’ (2015 political book of the year) and the more recently ‘UKIP: Inside the campaign to redraw the map of British politics’. Topics covered on this week’s podcast include: 1) How is…

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Local By-Election Preview : January 14th 2016

Local By-Election Preview : January 14th 2016

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Launceston Central (Ind defence, elected as Lib Dem) on Cornwall Result of council at last election (2013): Independent 37, Liberal Democrats 36, Conservatives 31, Labour 6, United Kingdom Independence Party 6, Mebynon Kernow 4, Green Party 1 (No Overall Control, Independents short by 25) Result of ward at last election (2013): Liberal Democrat 551 (71%), Conservative 134 (17%), Labour 93 (12%) Candidates duly nominated: John Allman (Christian People’s Alliance), Val Bugden-Cawsey (Con), Roger Creagh-Osborne (Green), Gemma Massey (Lib Dem) Result…

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The GE2015 polling fail put down to “unrepresentative samples”

The GE2015 polling fail put down to “unrepresentative samples”

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Too many LAB supporters interviewed – not enough Tories A new report just published today by NatCen Social Research and authored by leading psephologist, Prof John Curtice, suggests that the polls called the General Election wrong primarily because the samples of people they polled were not adequately representative of the country as a whole. Rather than other explanations, such as a late swing to the Conservative Party, Labour abstentions, or so-called “shy Tories” not telling pollsters their true voting intentions,…

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If not Boris then WHO is going to lead of the out campaign?

If not Boris then WHO is going to lead of the out campaign?

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This is big #EUref news. Boris says he's not an "outer" https://t.co/0a8iBc4yxp pic.twitter.com/fimi0HCPoB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 13, 2016 What about Jacob Rees-Mogg? The EU referendum is getting closer and last week’s announcement by David Cameron that ministers could campaign for LEAVE might have been expected to open the flood gates of senior Tories announcing that they would be campaigning against. Boris would have been a superb catch but the Mayor only does things that fit in with his…

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A reminder that national nomination polls at this stage in White House races have to be treated with caution

A reminder that national nomination polls at this stage in White House races have to be treated with caution

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Real Clear Poitics Why for betting state polling is a better pointer Every day at the moment the excellent Real Clear Politics site is putting up the above table showing the national polling average for the Republican nomination compared with what it was at this stage in the 2012 and 2008 races. As can be seen the national averages from the last two Presidential elections bore no relation to who in fact won the Republican party nominations. The reason is…

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Jeremy Corbyn cannot afford to lose trade union support over Trident – it could be his undoing

Jeremy Corbyn cannot afford to lose trade union support over Trident – it could be his undoing

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Embed from Getty Images Get the debate over Trident renewal wrong and it might be trade union leaders – rather than the PLP – that Jeremy Corbyn has to worry about most writes Keiran Pedley Despite a difficult few days, Jeremy Corbyn seems to have emerged from last week’s reshuffle stronger than ever. He may not have got the Shadow Cabinet that he really wanted but piece by piece the Labour leader is shaping the party’s top team in his…

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The GOP Race: It’s hard now to see beyond Trump, Cruz or Rubio

The GOP Race: It’s hard now to see beyond Trump, Cruz or Rubio

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Punters still don’t quite believe in Trump The screen grab at the top is from Fox News and shows the line up of GOP contenders to this week’s TV debate. The ranking numbers are based on where they currently stand in the national polling. Below that my chart shows the latest betting on the Betfair exchange. These are not odds set by the bookie but actual market prices of trades at 2pm this afternoon. Although Trump is well ahead in…

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