If Labour wasn’t so obsessed with fighting itself it would be having a field day over the doctors’ strike

If Labour wasn’t so obsessed with fighting itself it would be having a field day over the doctors’ strike

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The Ipsos-MORI Newsnight poll showing overwhelming public support in England for doctors strike pic.twitter.com/1yCUsDVQWd — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 12, 2016 All part of the price for the current power struggle It is not often that industrial action in the public sector attracts the level of support shown in the overnight Ipsos MORI poll for Newsnight. A split of four to one in favour of the doctors suggests that Health Secretary, Jeremy Hunt, still has a long way to go…

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Just three weeks to go and two new polls put Trump back in the lead in Iowa

Just three weeks to go and two new polls put Trump back in the lead in Iowa

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https://twitter.com/PaulLewis/status/686279815507255296 Trump ahead in Quinnipiac Iowa poll Trump 31%Cruz 29%Rubio 15%Carson 7%Christie 4% Caucus voting 3 weeks tonight — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 11, 2016 Another Iowa poll has Trump ahead – ARGTrump 29%Cruz 25%Rubio 10%Carson 8%Christie 6% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 11, 2016 Three weeks on from tonight meetings will be taking place in each of the 1600+ precincts in Iowa at the start of the WH2016 nomination process. Both the Republicans and Democrats have caucuses at the…

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Tissue Price on Osborne’s leadership ambitions and his EURef problem

Tissue Price on Osborne’s leadership ambitions and his EURef problem

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The Chancellor is 13/8 favourite to be Next Conservative Leader. He is 15/8 favourite to be Next Prime Minister. And on Betfair, you can get nearly 2/1 and 5/2 about the two propositions. But the folk wisdom on backing the next Tory leader is that the favourite never wins. That the winner is more about who he isn’t, than who he is. You have to go all the way back to Eden to find a clear case of the long-term…

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It’s not inconceivable that in a year’s time there’ll be a new CON leader and Prime Minister

It’s not inconceivable that in a year’s time there’ll be a new CON leader and Prime Minister

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ConservativeHome A referendum BREXIT vote would surely be the end of Cameron There’s is a widespread view that if the EU referendum goes against Cameron then his position will no longer be tenable. If that happens then we could only be months away from the first Conservative leadership contest since 2005 in which the party would not just be choosing a new leader but the next prime minister. With the plan apparently for the referendum this year and the tightness…

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How George Osborne is hoping to raid pension pots without you noticing

How George Osborne is hoping to raid pension pots without you noticing

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Alastair Meeks, former chair of the Association of Pension Lawyers, looks at George Osborne’s plans for pensions. When I qualified as a pension lawyer, my first boss used to say: “Alastair, when people hear the word ‘pension’, they think ‘old’, they think ‘grey’, they think ‘boring’.  But if every time you hear the word ‘pension’ you replace it with the word ‘money’, suddenly it seems so much more exciting.”  Today I’m going to talk to you about money. We have now…

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Why Sadiq Khan shouldn’t resign as an MP were he to become London Mayor

Why Sadiq Khan shouldn’t resign as an MP were he to become London Mayor

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In May, Khan might be the only electoral success for Labour and like Boris that could propel him towards the leadership of his party. I’ll be frank, I think Jeremy Corbyn is a disaster for Labour, with his and his team’s approach to politics there will be no electoral low that Labour won’t plunge under his leadership as evidenced by his poor personal polling. With the reshuffle this week I get the feeling the Parliamentary Labour Party have reached a…

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Why Team Corbyn might be on a loser attacking the trustworthiness of BBC journalists

Why Team Corbyn might be on a loser attacking the trustworthiness of BBC journalists

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The real problem, surely, is Labour’s poor media operation The whole reshuffle affair has dominated the headlines for far too long and that’s not been good for the image of Corbyn’s Labour. As Damian McBride was saying in the PB/Polling Matters podcast yesterday the art of a reshuffle is to have it largely completed before word starts seeping to the media. Instead we have had speculation going on for weeks so what should have been a 48 hour maximum story…

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Germany’s inherited war-shame is in danger of eating itself

Germany’s inherited war-shame is in danger of eating itself

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But the consequences of Merkel’s madness will be felt Europe-wide Germany paid a heavy price for the world wars. Only during Angela Merkel’s chancellorship were the loans for WWI reparations finally paid off. That cost, however, pales into insignificance compared with the legacy of the second War. The human and material losses were of course disastrous but perhaps the most lasting legacy was psychological: the national shame of the past and the consequent and reflexive determination – craving, even –…

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