Local By-Election Preview : January 14th 2016

Local By-Election Preview : January 14th 2016

Launceston Central (Ind defence, elected as Lib Dem) on Cornwall
Result of council at last election (2013): Independent 37, Liberal Democrats 36, Conservatives 31, Labour 6, United Kingdom Independence Party 6, Mebynon Kernow 4, Green Party 1 (No Overall Control, Independents short by 25)
Result of ward at last election (2013): Liberal Democrat 551 (71%), Conservative 134 (17%), Labour 93 (12%)
Candidates duly nominated: John Allman (Christian People’s Alliance), Val Bugden-Cawsey (Con), Roger Creagh-Osborne (Green), Gemma Massey (Lib Dem)

Result of ward at past elections (2009)*
2009: Liberal Democrat 599 (64%), Conservative 341 (36%)
Ward created at 2009 elections
* Past elections where the councillor who has resigned / died fought

Cornwall first came to national prominence in 1993 when as part of the disaster that was the county council elections for the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats won Cornwall (not only by polling 42% of the vote on a swing of 8% to them since the 1989 county elections, but also by winning an overall majority on the council) prompting the discussion that come the next general election the Liberal Democrats had a very good chance of sweeping Cornwall and if it had not been for Candy Atherton winning Falmouth for Labour, that would have been the case. At that general election, the Conservative started to recover from their 1993 losses but in Cornwall the reverse happened as their vote share fell again (to just 15%) and concede another 2.5% swing to the Liberal Democrats. When the Conservative recovery started (in 2001) boy, did they make up for lost time notching up a very impressive 6.5% swing to them back from the Liberal Democrats, however all that did was enable them to make two net gains and although the Liberal Democrats did lose overall control they were still the largest party on the council. And then came the breakthrough for the Liberal Democrats in 2005, they gained Falmouth from Labour, held their other four seats and regained overall control of the county and for the first time in almost a century, Cornwall was wholly Liberal. By now, however there were discussions about whether Cornwall, an area of the country that some people thought should have access to devolution (with a very keen supporter in the form of Lisa Simpson who declared during Channel 4’s Alternative Christmas Message ” “) should become a unitary authority. The discussions came to a successful conclusion and in 2009 Cornwall County Council became the largest unitary authority in the county with a staggering 123 members (by comparison Wiltshire which also became unitary at the same elections elected 98 members and Birmingham has 118 members) and in those first elections the Conservatives reigned supreme winning 50 seats on the new council and becoming the largest grouping with 34% of the vote overturning twenty five years of Liberal Democrat rule and influence and although in 2013 the Conservatives lost nineteen seats overall, because not all of those losses were Liberal Democrat gains, the council remained hung. Since then of course we have had the Liberal Democrats wiped out at Westminster not only in Cornwall but throughout the South West and although this ward voted Lib Dem in 2013 by 71% it is clear that the sitting councillor (who first resigned the Lib Dem whip on the council after allegations against him surfaced and then resigned in disgust from the council over the way the allegations against him were treated) had a very strong personal vote and as we all know, personal votes are up for grabs when the person who got them does not stand again.

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