If Trump does win tonight in Iowa he’ll go into New Hampshire next week in an overwhelming position

If Trump does win tonight in Iowa he’ll go into New Hampshire next week in an overwhelming position

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Real Clear Politics New Hampshire polling average Tonight the first real votes will be cast in WH2016 Well we’ve got there at last. After months of speculation, polling and debates, the first state to decide in the long-drawn out nomination process, Iowa, will do so tonight. My guess is that we should be getting the first results in both GOP Democrat races after 2am tomorrow morning. The final polling points to Trump taking the Republican prize and Hillary just pipping Sanders…

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The sting. How George Osborne is tackling the deficit

The sting. How George Osborne is tackling the deficit

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Embed from Getty Images We’re all in this together, so David Cameron told us before the 2010 general election.  This assertion was received with derision by many outside the Eton-attending classes.  And sure enough, when the coalition came to power after the election, the impact of the deficit-reduction measures was felt most keenly by those at the bottom of society.  The Treasury explicitly targeted spending cuts over tax rises in the proportion of 80:20.  With most government spending being deployed…

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Leave could be making the same mistake Labour made at the 2015 General Election

Leave could be making the same mistake Labour made at the 2015 General Election

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The latest @IpsosMORI leader ratings which have Cameron as the best rated leader and Corbyn & Farage the worst. pic.twitter.com/P1Ds1t10Up — TSE (@TSEofPB) January 31, 2016 If the referendum comes down to a popular leader with economic credibility versus an unpopular leader without any economic credibility then there will only be one winner, again. In the most recent electoral events in the United Kingdom, the Scottish Independence referendum and the 2015 general election, the side that won was the side…

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Final Des Moines Register poll has Trump as the hair apparent in the Iowa caucus

Final Des Moines Register poll has Trump as the hair apparent in the Iowa caucus

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From the historically most accurate pollster in this race Des Moines Register Iowa Poll Trump 28% (+6)Cruz 23% (-2)Rubio 15% (+3)Carson 10% (-1)Paul 5% (-)Christie 3% (-) — TSE (@TSEofPB) January 30, 2016 It looks like the attacks on Ted Cruz and the doubts about his eligibilty have had an impact on the Senator from Texas. Whilst the Democratic race is Whilst the Des Moines Register Iowa Poll for the Dems has Clinton 45% (+3)Sanders 42% (+2)O'Malley 3% (-1) —…

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William Hill say nobody’s bet on Osbo since the Google tax row broke out

William Hill say nobody’s bet on Osbo since the Google tax row broke out

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https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/693423092916473857w We don’t know how many bets on Osborne that they’d normally expect in the same period so it’s quite hard to assess the William Hill statement. In any case you don’t get many punters this far out from an outcome (it could be 2019/2020) ready to lock up their cash on a favourite with tighter odds than 2/1. The point remains however: the Google deal hurts the Chancellor because so little money appears to be forthcoming. Cameron’s attempt to…

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The key EURef issue: Whether Cameron can secure a deal that’s saleable

The key EURef issue: Whether Cameron can secure a deal that’s saleable

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David Herdson questions whether minor benefit reform will be enough When Cameron gave his Bloomberg speech three years ago, kicking off his whole renegotiation policy, he set out a vision of the European Union he believed was fit for the twenty-first century, built on five principles: 1. Competitiveness. In particular, completing the Single Market in services, energy and digital, and “addressing the sclerotic, inefficient decision-making” and “creating a leaner, less bureaucratic Union”. 2. Flexibility. He mentioned doing away with ‘ever…

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A second EURef phone poll has REMAIN with huge lead

A second EURef phone poll has REMAIN with huge lead

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Applying ComRes's post-GE2015 turnout model the latest poll showsREMAIN 57%LEAVE 34%DK 9% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 29, 2016 Updated table of latest #EURef polls including today's new phone surveys pic.twitter.com/0S0O3VPYAK — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 29, 2016 ComRes/Mail phone poll finds 44% saying economy would do better staying in EU with 23% saying better out — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 29, 2016 CON lead up 1 in latest ComRes/Mail phone pollCon 37% (NC)Lab 32% (-1)LD 6% (-1)UKIP 12% (+1)Green…

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Local By-Election Review : January 2016

Local By-Election Review : January 2016

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Local By-Election Review : January 2016 Botchery on Carlisle: Ind GAIN from Lab on a swing of 10.5% from Lab to Ind Launceston Central on Cornwall: Lib Dem HOLD on a swing of 9% from Lib Dem to Con Bushney North on Hertfordshire: Con HOLD on a swing of 1.5% from Lib Dem to Con Thatto Heath on St. Helens: Lab HOLD on a swing of 8.5% from Lab to UKIP Hamilton North and East on South Lanarkshire: SNP HOLD…

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