Wins for Clinton and Trump in the latest contests

Wins for Clinton and Trump in the latest contests

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Hillary Clinton an 80% chance to be the Dem nominee according to Betfair. https://t.co/Tc078vwMRz pic.twitter.com/d50l8NJlcy — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 21, 2016 In the GOP race, Trump wins again A good night for Trump, but Trump skeptics see a lot to like in the results too. https://t.co/j3guoS4nPa — Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) February 21, 2016 One concept that hasn't had a very good GOP race so far: "momentum". Both NH and SC results went against "momentum" in many respects. — Nate Silver…

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First post EU deal referendum poll has REMAIN with 15% lead

First post EU deal referendum poll has REMAIN with 15% lead

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Very little about the poll is known apart from the headline. I’m told that fieldwork started this morning so all took place after the EU deal was known. It was carried out by Survation by phone. There is no recent Survation EU phone polling to compare it to so it is hard to judge the impact. We do know that phone polls have been showing much bigger leads for IN than online ones. In the US all eyes are on…

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So it’s on. In just four months Britain will vote whether to stay or leave

So it’s on. In just four months Britain will vote whether to stay or leave

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Punters make IN a 70% chance So the starting gun has been fired on the EU membership referendum which will take place as planned on June 23rd. This is just 4 months away. It means that the referendum campaign will in many ways be running at the same time as the Scottish Welsh and of course London elections which happen at the start of May. What’s been striking today is the range of coordinated activity on the part of the…

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Deal done – and combined with LEAVE’s Galloway error of judgment, it might be enough

Deal done – and combined with LEAVE’s Galloway error of judgment, it might be enough

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The initiative swings back to Remain But for Tony Marlow’s blazer, Michael Portillo might have ended up prime minister rather than a rail-hopping TV presenter. To have done so, he needed John Redwood to do sufficiently well in the first round of the Conservative Party leadership election against John Major. Redwood, however, never really recovered from his initial press conference when he “was lost in a mass of eccentric jackets and lime-green silk”, as Major put it. That one press…

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All this week’s Local By-Election Results

All this week’s Local By-Election Results

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Oban North and Lorn (Argyll First defence, was Independent) on Argyll and Bute Result: Scottish National Party 1,113 (42% +11%), Conservative 609 (23% +14%), Independent 608 (23% -32%), Green Party 300 (11%, no candidate last time) Scottish National Party GAIN from Argyll First on the fourth count with a lead of 504 (19%) on a swing of 1.5% from Scottish National Party to Conservative Greasley (Con defence) and Toton and Chilwell Meadows (Con defence) on Browtoxe Greasley Result: Conservative 656…

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As the crucial Brussels talks go into day 2 it’s far from clear that Cameron will get a deal

As the crucial Brussels talks go into day 2 it’s far from clear that Cameron will get a deal

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Today should determine whether the referendum will be on June 23rd Once again all eyes will be on Brussels as Cameron seeks to get an EU deal that he’s confident will be sellable in the referendum. Judging by the reporting in some of the press he has some way to go and it might be that this ends today without agreement. In that situation there will have to be more talks at a later date and it is going to…

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