If this via @Birdyword is right we could be overstating importance of LAB's new membershttps://t.co/jSAIUAXcmL pic.twitter.com/ujGCyjkoes — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 10, 2016 https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/707855903844909056
Edition March 9th 2016: Brexit, Boris and who is going to be CON leader Welcome to the latest pilot where Keiran Pedley and myself welcomed two very familiar figures – Alastair Meeks and Matthew Shaddick of Ladbrokes. There’s so much going on at the moment and so much political betting taking place that is becoming hard to know where to start. This latest edition looks mostly at the UK. All the shows that we’ve done can be found here. Mike…
Google When Rallings and Thrasher established the Elections Centre in the early 1980s the principal aim was to collect and publish local election results in the same way that F.W.S. Craig was covering the parliamentary equivalent. In establishing the website, www.electionscentre.co.uk, the aim is to provide easier access for a wide variety of users to the huge amount of data compiled over the intervening years. Many readers of Political Betting will already be acquainted with the site but a glimpse of future plans can…
57% blame the Government 11% the doctors With thousands of operations being cancelled because of the latest doctors strike public support for them is as high as it was for the first two strikes in January and February, according to new polling from Ipsos MORI. The survey of adults in England finds the same proportion (65%) supporting junior doctors strikes as for the previous round of action in February (66%) – as long as emergency care is provided. Opposition to…
Real Clear Politics scorecard at 0150 gmt pic.twitter.com/Imfdr1sces — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 9, 2016
There’s a interesting post tonight by Ron Faucheux on the US site The Hill highlighting the fact that in recent primaries Donald Trump has been doing worse than the polling. He writes: ” A comparison of pre-primary polls to the actual ballots cast on March 1 showed clear evidence of Trump’s eleventh-hour slippage: The last two polls taken in Virginia gave Trump an average 14 percentage point lead. On primary day, he won by a mere 3 points. The last…
Back in March 2013 Henry G Manson wrote a post here suggesting that Sadiq Khan, then 33/1, was a good value bet for London Mayor. He argued that the then LAB shadow minister for London was in a strong position to secure the nomination – and so it turned out. Amazingly, given that May 5th is not that far away we’d seen, until today, just one London Mayoral poll and that was in early January. Well that’s changed with a…
Why Corbyn could be an even bigger loser than the headline figures suggest A gender problem for Corbyn? Far fewer women tell YouGov that he should lead LAB at GE2020 than men pic.twitter.com/TObsy7ibLU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 7, 2016 And the problem is most dramatic with older women – see my piece for @ayeshahazarika 's @ProgressOnline out soon https://t.co/2ObL5dRZqI — Deborah Mattinson (@debmattinson) March 8, 2016 Last night I Tweeted the above panel from new YouGov polling. It shows…