There’s a interesting post tonight by Ron Faucheux on the US site The Hill highlighting the fact that in recent primaries Donald Trump has been doing worse than the polling. He writes:
” A comparison of pre-primary polls to the actual ballots cast on March 1 showed clear evidence of Trump’s eleventh-hour slippage: The last two polls taken in Virginia gave Trump an average 14 percentage point lead. On primary day, he won by a mere 3 points. The last two polls in Oklahoma gave Trump an average lead of 13 points. In actual voting, he lost by 6 points. The last three polls taken in Texas gave Cruz an average lead of 5 points. On primary day, Cruz beat Trump by 17 points.
On Saturday, we saw the same thing. The four polls taken in last few days before the Louisiana primary gave Trump an average lead of 17 points. But in actual voting, his lead shrunk to 3 points..”
In this he’s very similar to Boris Johnson. In his last election outing, the 2012 mayoral election, every single poll over-stated his actual lead.