Scroll down for charts and more data The above graphic created by Michael Dent is updated every 20 minutes and show the latest Betfair betting price on the June 23rd EU referendum. The default position is to show odds as a percentage but punters might like to click the DEC odds tab, What is striking is how little variation there has been which, of course, is a broad reflection of the polling. The March round of phone polls could make…
Donald Brind on the turnout worries within the Labour IN Campaign Senior women in the Labour party are becoming increasingly concerned that the EU referendum could be lost because women stay away from the polls on June 23rd. They see a campaign dominated by male voices and polluted by noise from the increasingly vicious Blue on Blue attacks. Labour pro-Europeans fear the arcane battle within the Tory tribe will depress interest in the campaign among Labour voters and especially among…
Alastair Meeks on the high energy PM Every politician is viewed in caricature. David Cameron is no exception. Journalists routinely write of him being like Flashman, of being lazy, of being an essay crisis Prime Minister who doesn’t do detail unless his back is against a wall, of being a man of no particular vision beyond keeping things steady as she goes. It is very hard to square this caricature with the David Cameron who has been working towards the…
Picture credit: Britain Stronger In Facebook page While there has rightly been analysis of an often incoherent Leave campaign, perhaps some scrutiny is needed of some common Remain tropes – those focusing on why we should stay rather than why we should not Leave – and what they might mean for the referendum result and the UK’s longer term relationship with its European neighbours. 1. We will be in a reformed EU and can continue with further reform. This is…
59% of Tory members back Brexit but only 20% of  members consider backing a Brexiter as the most important criteria in deciding who should be the next leader of the Tory party. The Tories will back someone who is seen as an election winner over a Brexiter. When the Tory Party starts obsessing about the European Union, it is the political equivalent of putting an unlimited supply of laxatives into the monkey house. Excrement starts getting flung in all directions, we…
It looks like the GOP establishment plan to stop Trump, as embodied by Mitt Romney, might be working, but is it too late? Summary of tonight's results. GOP: 2 states apiece for Trump & Cruz. Cruz gets the most delegates. pic.twitter.com/1qPi0H2Lt0 — TSE (@TSEofPB) March 6, 2016 After Super Tuesday Trump moved to an 83% implied chance on Betfair for nomination. Now a 64% implied chance pic.twitter.com/0eo6Tf6u70 — TSE (@TSEofPB) March 6, 2016 A fortnight ago Cruz was 70 on…
Real Clear Politics In Kansas he’s doing much worse than the polls Trump was 6% up in final Kansas poll. With 65% of votes counted he's 27% behind. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 5, 2016 After Super Tuesday Trump moved to an 83% chance on Betfair for nomination. Latest price 53% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 5, 2016
But how bad will it get for Scottish Labour? You wouldn’t know if you only received your news from the London media but there are three general elections in the UK this year. Voters will go to the polls in May to elect new Assemblies in Wales and Northern Ireland and to the Scottish Parliament (as well as a London mayor, various lesser mayors, a bumper set of councillors and PCCs across England and Wales – it’s probably the biggest…