How a Labour coup against Corbyn in May could win the EU referendum for Leave

How a Labour coup against Corbyn in May could win the EU referendum for Leave

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Why David Cameron and Remain should be hoping Labour does really well in May’s elections. A Labour leadership contest at the same time as the referendum campaign could favour Leave. Whilst it might seem like the EU referendum is solely an internal Tory party matter, if David Cameron wants Remain to win, he’s going to need Labour voters to turn out for Remain. David Cameron may not be the best person to get Labour voters to come out and vote…

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LAB close the gap by 5 points with ComRes online to just 9% behind

LAB close the gap by 5 points with ComRes online to just 9% behind

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CON 38%-3 LAB 29%+2 LD 7%-2 UKIP 16%+1 GRN 4%+1 The Boris versus Dave findings An encouraging finding for Cameron and one which could be crucial that CON voters are twice as likely to say they trust the PM more than the Mayor to do what is best for Britain (54% say they trust Cameron more v 27% who trust Johnson more). EURef findings but no voting intentions ComResRes voting intwntion numbers have in all case but one come from…

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Now YouGov suggests that Labour’s Scottish nightmare is getting worse

Now YouGov suggests that Labour’s Scottish nightmare is getting worse

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Third place behind the Tories in the Holyrood elections a distinct possibility ScotParl voting intention (list):SNP: 43% (+1)CON: 19% (-1)LAB 17%: (-3)GRN: 8% (+2)LDEM: 5% (-)UKIP: 4% (+1)(via YouGov / 06-09 Mar) — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) March 12, 2016 ScotParl voting intention (const.):SNP: 49% (-1)CON: 19% (-1)LAB: 19% (-)LDEM: 6% (-)(via YouGov / 06 – 09 Mar) — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) March 12, 2016

Why a brokered convention won’t stop Trump

Why a brokered convention won’t stop Trump

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The Republican nomination It is now Trump v Cruz. Lay anyone else. Let’s talk brokered conventions, always a topic to set the pulses of political anoraks racing. We can deal with the Democrats briefly. Bernie might take Hillary all the way to the convention but if he does, he’ll lose just as she did against Obama eight years ago. It’s quite possible that Sanders will deny Clinton the victories she needs to assure herself of the nomination without superdelegates but…

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Date for your diary: Next PB Gathering Friday April 8th + the local by-election results

Date for your diary: Next PB Gathering Friday April 8th + the local by-election results

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We’ve got a lot to catch up on Just to confirm – the next PB gathering takes place at the Shooting Star on Friday April 8th from about 1830. We’ve returned to a Friday evening slot following requests from a number of people who say that will be more convenient. It will be the third time we have used the pub, the Shooting Star, which is very close to Liverpool Street station. Thanks again to the slim-line Fat Steve for…

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Polling analysis: UKIP supporters make up the biggest group of those wanting OUT, LAB ones of those wanting to stay

Polling analysis: UKIP supporters make up the biggest group of those wanting OUT, LAB ones of those wanting to stay

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Tory voters are very much split between the two I don’t think this form of analysis has been done so far in the campaign – where are the supporters of either side coming from. What surprised me was that the Tory general election support is almost totally split between the two sides and is not the dominant segment in either. Turnout is clearly going to be important and whether the Tory vote remain broadly split will stay as it is…

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Missing the point. How the Remain campaign is failing

Missing the point. How the Remain campaign is failing

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Alastair Meeks on the Remain campaign With roughly 100 days to go to the referendum, the Remain campaign is no doubt feeling cautiously optimistic.  While the renegotiation of terms has not inspired, Remain has had a much better air war than Leave to date.  David Cameron has vigorously warned of the manifold dangers that he has identified if Britain should leave the EU.  A stately procession of the great and the good is being lined up to walk past us,…

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Tonight’s local by-elections – a CON defence in Theresa May’s constituency and a LD one in Tim Farron’s

Tonight’s local by-elections – a CON defence in Theresa May’s constituency and a LD one in Tim Farron’s

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Kendal, Strickland and Fell (Lib Dem defence) on Cumbria Result of council at last election (2013): Labour 35, Conservatives 26, Liberal Democrat 16, Independents 7 (No Overall Control, Labour short by 8) Result of ward at last election (2013): Liberal Democrat 980 (52%), Labour 506 (27%), Conservative 191 (10%), United Kingdom Independence Party 186 (10%), Trade Unionist and Socialist 15 (1%) Candidates duly nominated: Virginia Branney (Lab), Andy Mason (Green), Harry Taylor (Con), Peter Thornton (Lib Dem), David Walker (UKIP)…

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