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After tonight the Republican race could be down to just Trump versus Cruz

15/3/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

358 delegates at stake tonight in the GOP race Tonight’s a massive one in the fight for the Republican nomination. There are five big primaries with a total of 358 delegates at stake. To put that into context Trump currently leads Cruz by 460 to 370 and 1237 are required for victory. The states are:- Florida (99 delegates) North Carolina (72) Illinois (69) Ohio (66) Missouri (52). What makes this particularly interesting is that from today states can operate on…

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100 days to go till the referendum and the betting moves a bit closer

15/3/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

A week ago LEAVE was a 29% chance on Betfair. Now a 33% one pic.twitter.com/QvRQ7s0aJy — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 15, 2016 https://twitter.com/StrongerIn/status/709666678620233728 "We Have 100 Days to Take Back Control of Our Country" – #GO's Co-Founder @VotePursglove https://t.co/O4aWW29FwU pic.twitter.com/RZlDqsJlpc — Leave.EU (@LeaveEUOfficial) March 15, 2016 Updated table of #EURef polls which use the wording on the ballot pic.twitter.com/GpgRCSRBUZ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 15, 2016

Alastair Meeks says George Osborne’s star is dimming

15/3/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

What the Chancellor should do if he wants the top job The last few months have not been good for George Osborne.Â When he rose to give the last budget in July, he looked like a man ready to take over the top job.Â Following the general election he had been appointed First Secretary of State, recognising his place as second among equals.Â He had carved out a distinct policy agenda of his own within government on the northern powerhouse.Â …

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You’ve seen the latest London Mayoral poll – now predict the election in the PB Prize Competition

14/3/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Although it has been hugely overshadowed by the EURef the London Mayoral election on May 5th is proving to be an interesting battle. Thanks to Mark Hopkins and his NoJam widget we’ve prepared another PB Prize competition. Simple predict the first round shares for the main parties and the overall winner. Remember that the election gives voters two choices. A first choice and what is effectively a second one which only comes into play if their first choice is not…

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YouGov London Mayoral poll has Sadiq with 7% lead

14/3/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

New YouGov London Mayoral poll had Sadiq Khan maintaining 7% lead pic.twitter.com/XBx4DwFphO — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 14, 2016 Excluding the don't knows the YouGov London Mayoral polls hasSadiq 45%Zac 36%A 9% lead — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 14, 2016 This latest poll follows the Opinium survey for the Evening Standard last week that had Khan with a 5% lead on first preferences which rose to a 10% margin over Zac when second preferences were allocated. Both YouGov and Opinium…

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So far Cameron just has the edge on trust in the mighty battle between him and Boris

14/3/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The CON voter split will be crucial One of the best non-voting intention polling indicators to the referendum could well be the question above used by ComRes at the weekend in its IoS Sunday Mirror online poll. Inevitably the battle is being presented in the media as a mighty clash between the Prime Minister and the Mayor and the question of who is trusted most to act in the interests of Britain is central. Overall but only by a whisker…

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The next CON leader betting and PB/Polling Matters podcast

13/3/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

On this weekâ€™s PB/Polling Matters podcast, Keiran looks back at a busy week in U.S. politics and updates us on the latest results from this weekend and fallout from Trumpâ€™s cancelled rally in Chicago. Keiran also argues why he thinks a Trump-Cruz ticket is more likely than the GOP establishment choosing a Kasich, Rubio or Ryan. Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, could Sanders supporters being seen to disrupt Trump campaign events help his campaign and could President Obamaâ€™s improving approval…

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Betting on when Osborne ceases to be Chancellor

13/3/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

On Wednesday George Osborne will deliver his eighth budget and I’m starting to wonder if this will be Osborne’s final budget, for the following reasons, Were Leave to win, I expect Cameron to cease being Tory leader, and a new leader, assuming it isn’t Osborne, will want someone else as Chancellor. If the new Leader is Osborne, that will also end Osborne’s tenure Â as Chancellor. Even if Remain wins, Cameron is expected to conduct a ‘reconciliation reshuffle’Â If it is a…

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