Another big night of WH2016 primaries
Real Clear Politics scorecard at 0150 gmt pic.twitter.com/Imfdr1sces — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 9, 2016
Trump & Boris: Both blond, both born in New York and both under-perform in the polls
There’s a interesting post tonight by Ron Faucheux on the US site The Hill highlighting the fact that in recent primaries Donald Trump has been doing worse than the polling. He writes: ” A comparison of pre-primary polls to the actual ballots cast on March 1 showed clear evidence of Trump’s eleventh-hour slippage: The last two polls taken in Virginia gave Trump an average 14 percentage point lead. On primary day, he won by a mere 3 points. The last…
Opinium London Mayoral boost for those who took the 33/1 PB Sadiq Khan tip
Back in March 2013 Henry G Manson wrote a post here suggesting that Sadiq Khan, then 33/1, was a good value bet for London Mayor. He argued that the then LAB shadow minister for London was in a strong position to secure the nomination – and so it turned out. Amazingly, given that May 5th is not that far away we’d seen, until today, just one London Mayoral poll and that was in early January. Well that’s changed with a…
More polling’s due out on Corbyn’s failure with the most crucial voting group of all – older women
Why Corbyn could be an even bigger loser than the headline figures suggest A gender problem for Corbyn? Far fewer women tell YouGov that he should lead LAB at GE2020 than men pic.twitter.com/TObsy7ibLU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 7, 2016 And the problem is most dramatic with older women – see my piece for @ayeshahazarika 's @ProgressOnline out soon https://t.co/2ObL5dRZqI — Deborah Mattinson (@debmattinson) March 8, 2016 Last night I Tweeted the above panel from new YouGov polling. It shows…
The EURef betting numbers remain solid for IN
Scroll down for charts and more data The above graphic created by Michael Dent is updated every 20 minutes and show the latest Betfair betting price on the June 23rd EU referendum. The default position is to show odds as a percentage but punters might like to click the DEC odds tab, What is striking is how little variation there has been which, of course, is a broad reflection of the polling. The March round of phone polls could make…
The blue on blue fight is making the EURef seem like an all-CON affair and that could impact on turnout
Donald Brind on the turnout worries within the Labour IN Campaign Senior women in the Labour party are becoming increasingly concerned that the EU referendum could be lost because women stay away from the polls on June 23rd. They see a campaign dominated by male voices and polluted by noise from the increasingly vicious Blue on Blue attacks. Labour pro-Europeans fear the arcane battle within the Tory tribe will depress interest in the campaign among Labour voters and especially among…
For someone who’s got reputation for laziness Cameron’s running rings round the outers
Alastair Meeks on the high energy PM Every politician is viewed in caricature. David Cameron is no exception. Journalists routinely write of him being like Flashman, of being lazy, of being an essay crisis Prime Minister who doesn’t do detail unless his back is against a wall, of being a man of no particular vision beyond keeping things steady as she goes. It is very hard to square this caricature with the David Cameron who has been working towards the…
Cyclefree’s analysis of the Remain campaign
Picture credit: Britain Stronger In Facebook page While there has rightly been analysis of an often incoherent Leave campaign, perhaps some scrutiny is needed of some common Remain tropes – those focusing on why we should stay rather than why we should not Leave – and what they might mean for the referendum result and the UK’s longer term relationship with its European neighbours. 1. We will be in a reformed EU and can continue with further reform. This is…