Happy tenth anniversary David

Happy tenth anniversary David

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For 70% of Cameron's 10yrs as leader he's been ahead of his Lab opponent, in @IpsosMORI net satisfaction terms pic.twitter.com/qY5wuvQ8CS — TSE (@TSEofPB) December 6, 2015 Today is the tenth anniversary of David Cameron’s election as Conservative Leader, and what a ten years it has been. The above chart neatly encapsulates why David Cameron is seen as the Conservative Party’s strongest asset, for around 70% of his tenure, he has led his Labour opponent on this front. With Cameron not standing…

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CSI Oldham: The by-election autopsy

CSI Oldham: The by-election autopsy

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Alastair Meeks reviews the Oldham West and Royton by election After any betting event, successful or unsuccessful, it is important to take stock of what went wrong and what went right.  This is especially important when expectations were completely upended, as happened on Thursday night in the Oldham West & Royton by-election. What happened? Contrary to all prior expectations, Labour not only won comfortably, it increased its share of the vote.  This should not have been a surprise.  As I…

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The date of the next Labour leadership election betting

The date of the next Labour leadership election betting

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Paddy Power have a market up on the date of the next Labour leadership election. I quite like this market because most of the other markets on the Labour leadership are about when Jeremy Corbyn ceases to be Labour leader, this market allows for an unsuccessful attempt to remove to Corbyn. I initially started writing this piece on Friday morning and was going to suggest that 2019 might be value, as a year before a general election might focus minds,…

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Only one PB Oldham competition entrant over-stated Labour in the by-election and he wins by a huge margin

Only one PB Oldham competition entrant over-stated Labour in the by-election and he wins by a huge margin

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Congratulations and the prize to Michael Paterson The sensational Oldham result took all but one of the 320 PB competition entrants by surprise. Michael Paterson wins the prize of the Cowley/Kavanagh book of the 2015 general election Here’s a full list of all the entries in winning order. Thanks again to Mark Hopkins of Nojam for providing the excellent competition widget. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

Oldham has firmed up the chances of a Labocalypse

Oldham has firmed up the chances of a Labocalypse

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Corbyn is now safe for months It’s been an up-and-down week for Labour. Rows, splits, mishandled Autumn Budget replies – all forgotten in one swift and decisive victory. Except that’s not true: they’ve not been forgotten and although Labour’s right has gained a new MP, tilting the PLP even further away from the leadership, it’s the left of the party that’s gained the strategic victory. Most obviously but also most transiently, the news narrative has turned positive for Labour and…

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Local By-Election and Westminster By-Election Results : December 3rd 2015

Local By-Election and Westminster By-Election Results : December 3rd 2015

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Ash South and Tongham on Guildford (Con defence) Result: Conservative 540 (43% unchanged), Liberal Democrat 286 (23% +6%), United Kingdom Independence Party 153 (12%, no candidate in 2015), Guildford Greenbelt 145 (12% -7%), Labour 125 (10% -11%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 254 (17%) on a swing of 3% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat Teme Valley on Malvern Hills (Con defence) Result: Conservative 266 (64% -8%), Labour 96 (23%, no candidate in 2015), United Kingdom Independence Party 56 (13%…

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Echoes of History: Hilary Benn and Michael Foot

Echoes of History: Hilary Benn and Michael Foot

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Echoes of history. Donald Brind compares Hilary Benn’s speech on Syrian air strikes to Michael Foot’s on the Falklands. How to draw the sting from Hilary Benn’s brilliant wind-up speech in the Commons debate on Syria air strikes? That was the problem facing Labour and SNP opponents of the military action who were on the wrong end of the 179 majority. They set out to kill it with comparisons. For Labour, the shadow chancellor John McDonnell said it reminded him of…

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The latest PB/Polling Matters Podcast – Reflections on Oldham, Syria, Polling, and Benn

The latest PB/Polling Matters Podcast – Reflections on Oldham, Syria, Polling, and Benn

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https://twitter.com/OliverRyan95/status/672390646989258753 This week’s podcast reacts to a momentous week in British politics as parliament votes to approve airstrikes in Syria and Labour convincingly holds Oldham West and Royton in Thursday’s by-election. What role has polling played? How strong is Jeremy Corbyn after a tough week and should public opinion really influence complex foreign policy decisions? Finally, how likely is it that Hilary Benn could replace Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader in the future? Keiran discusses these issues with Rob Vance…

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