Betting on Osborne’s next Cabinet job

Betting on Osborne’s next Cabinet job

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Should you be betting on George Osborne going to the Foreign Office? After a sub-optimal fortnight for George Osborne, William Hill have a market up on George Osborne’s next Cabinet job. I think backing the 5/2 on him as next Foreign Secretary might be the best option. I suspect after the referendum (assuming a Remain victory) David Cameron will have a reconciliation reshuffle and move Osborne out of Number 11. Foreign Secretary and Home Secretary are the only jobs that won’t…

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Nick Palmer says both sides in the referendum have got to stop sounding so gloomy

Nick Palmer says both sides in the referendum have got to stop sounding so gloomy

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< Positive messages might swing votes It’s been widely observed that the referendum campaign is a contest between negatives. Vote Remain because leaving would reduce the country to smouldering ashes, or Vote Leave because remaining would doom us to surrender to Brussels bureaucrats forever. The impression given is that we have a choice of extremely bearish scenarios, with little hope either way. It is generally accepted by professionals that the outcome will be decided by people who have no strong...

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After the latest Trump-Cruz blow-up David Herdson suggests a 50/1 punt on Kasich

After the latest Trump-Cruz blow-up David Herdson suggests a 50/1 punt on Kasich

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He could be the only one who can stop Trump It’s probably all over: the sex scandal now engulfing Ted Cruz means that Donald Trump is highly likely to be the Republicans’ nominee for president. Highly likely but not certain. The dilemmas of the Never Trump brigade as to what strategy to adopt in order to stop him have their answer; there’s only one possible. They must get behind John Kasich as soon as possible in order to deny Trump…

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Read all about it. The news sources that matter nowadays

Read all about it. The news sources that matter nowadays

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Alastair Meeks on the media influence on the EU referendum The EU referendum has turned into a battle between the Prime Minister and the right-leaning newspapers.  In 1992 the Sun hubristically claimed to have be the one wot won it.  Will it be the Mail wot wins the EU referendum for Leave in 2016? The world has changed in a generation.  In 1992, five daily newspapers sold more than a million copies and the top twelve biggest selling daily newspapers…

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ICM referendum findings suggest that turnout won’t be at general election levels

ICM referendum findings suggest that turnout won’t be at general election levels

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This could be good news for LEAVE The latest ICM poll includes for the first time turnout weighting and points to two broad conclusions: that outers are more determined to vote than inners and that the overall participation level will be lower than the 66.1% that we saw at the general election in May 2015. Before applying the turnout filter but after excluding the “certain not to vote” the latest survey, carried out after the Brussels attacks, had 43% REMAIN,…

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Local By-Election Preview : March 24th 2016 (Maundy Thursday)

Local By-Election Preview : March 24th 2016 (Maundy Thursday)

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Dalton (Con defence) and Moss Bay (Lab defence) on Allerdale Result of council at last election (2015): Labour 29, Conservatives 17, Independents 7, United Kingdom Independence Party 3 (Labour majority of 2) Result of wards at last election (2015) Dalton Conservative 510 (48%), Liberal Democrat 226 (21%), Green Party 168 (16%), United Kingdom Independence Party 153 (15%) Candidates duly nominated: Eric Atkinson (United Kingdom Independence Party), Flic Crowley (Green Party), Marion Fitzgerald (Ind), Ross Hayman (Lab), Mike Johnson (Con) Moss…

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Survation EURef phone poll follows ComRes and has reduced though still clear REMAIN lead

Survation EURef phone poll follows ComRes and has reduced though still clear REMAIN lead

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Survation chart showing latest phone poll wit reduced REMAIN lead pic.twitter.com/X9LdJeDkw0 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 24, 2016 LAB get much closer with Ipsos Chart showing full voting intention data from today's @IpsosMORI phone pollLDs in double figures pic.twitter.com/ZLmdqFMl02 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 24, 2016 Corbyn overtakes Cameron in the Ipsos leader ratings Corbyn & Farage big gainers in latest Ipsos satisfaction ratings. Cameron the big loser well behind LAB leader pic.twitter.com/NcmDCs90Mq — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 24, 2016

The New Zealand flag referendum goes strongly for the status quo: A pointer for EURef

The New Zealand flag referendum goes strongly for the status quo: A pointer for EURef

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Another referendum where the status quo wins. New Zealand votes to keep current flag. Implications for BREXIT? https://t.co/1nrhu8EwYp — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 24, 2016 One of the massive challenges for LEAVE is that there’s a strong history in elections from many countries of the status quo prevailing. We saw that in Scotland in September 2014 as well as in the UK EC referendum of 1975. We have also seen it to a very striking degree when voters in English…

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