This could be good news for LEAVE
The latest ICM poll includes for the first time turnout weighting and points to two broad conclusions: that outers are more determined to vote than inners and that the overall participation level will be lower than the 66.1% that we saw at the general election in May 2015.
Before applying the turnout filter but after excluding the “certain not to vote” the latest survey, carried out after the Brussels attacks, had 43% REMAIN, 38% LEAVE and 19% DK.
After applying the filter this became 45% REMAIN, 43% LEAVE and 12% DK. ICM say this “suggests that the high proportion of Donâ€™t knows in online EU polls are likely to be linked to not voting rather than a genuine uncertainty over which way to vote.” The pollster goes on to note:-
“Just 47% say they are absolutely certain to vote in the EU referendum on 23 June â€“ giving 10/10 on a ten-point scale â€“ which is significantly lower compared to the proportion who typically say the same of the next general election (66%). This suggests that the actual turnout in the referendum is likely to be lower than previously suggested.“
Clearly we need to see other data but that the certainty to vote levels is not currently in the same area as what is being found in general election polls points to a lower participation rate.
I’ve now begun betting on this and make money if it is lower than 65%.